[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 091714
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
114 PM EDT Fri Jun 9 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the eastern Atlantic with axis extending
from 14N22W to 05N23W, moving west at 5-10 kt. Unfavorable wind
shear and Saharan dry air hinder convection north of 11N.
Scattered moderate convection is in the southern wave environment
from 04N-09N between 19W-24W where CIRA LPW also shows abundant
low level moisture.

A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic with axis extending
from 13N45W to 03N46W, moving west at 20 kt. Saharan dry air and
dust are in the northern wave environment, which is limiting
convection to isolated moderate from 03N-08N between 42W-49W.

A tropical wave is in the west Atlantic with axis extending from
14N58W to 05N59W, moving west at 10-15 kt. CIRA LPW show moderate
low level moisture in the wave environment with large patches of
dry air. The wave is under diffluent flow aloft, that supports
isolated showers from 06N-11N between 54W-62W.

A tropical wave is in the southwest Caribbean Sea with axis
extending from 15N82W to 07N81W, moving west at 10-15 kt. CIRA LPW
show moderate moisture with patches of dry air at the lower
levels. Upper level diffluence aloft support scattered to isolated
showers from 10N-15N between 74W-78W. This wave is forecast to
traverse Central America today.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of W Africa near 12N16W
to 08N20W. The ITCZ extends from 08N20W to 09N22W. The ITCZ
resumes west of a tropical wave near 09N24W and continues to
04N37W to 06N45W. The ITCZ resumes west of another tropical wave
near 06N48W and continues to the coast of South America near
06N54W. Besides the convection associated with the tropical
waves, scattered moderate convection is from 03N-07N between
10W-18W. Similar convection is from 06N-09N between 27W-32W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front is over S Florida and the SE Gulf of Mexico
from 27N80W to 24N84W dissipating to 24N89W. Scattered showers are
within 90 nm of the front. Fair weather is over the remainder of
the Gulf. A 1015 mb high is centered over S Georgia near 31N83W
producing 10 kt SE surface winds over the NE Gulf. 5-10 kt
variable winds are over the remainder of the Gulf. In the upper
levels, a trough axis extends from N Georgia near 35N85W to the
Bay of Campeche near 20N94W. Strong subsidence is over the Gulf.
Expect the front to remain quasi-stationary through tonight, then
weaken to a surface trough early Saturday before dissipating
Sunday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave is over the W Caribbean, while another wave is
about to enter the Caribbean. See above. A surface trough is
centered over the Gulf of Honduras from 21N86W to 16N88W.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is over the W
Caribbean from 16N-21N between 83W-88W. Further S, scattered
moderate convection is over the SW Caribbean from 11N-13N between
76W-78W. In the upper levels, upper level diffluence is over the
NW Caribbean W of 80W. An upper level low is centered over the
Leeward Islands near 18N64W. Upper level diffluence is over the
Windward Islands producing scattered showers. Expect over the
next 24 hours for the tropical waves to move W. Also expect
scattered showers and convection to persist over the S Caribbean
and Central America.

...HISPANIOLA...

Daytime heating, local sea breezes and mountain upslope lifting
will combine with moisture in the region to produce cloudiness
with scattered showers, particularly during the afternoon and
early evening hours.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Three more tropical waves are moving across the basin. Please
refer to the waves section above for details. A cold front is over
the W Atlantic from 31N79W to the low over central Florida near
28N82W. Widely scattered moderate convection is over the W
Atlantic E of the front to 74W, and N of 23N. A large 1023 mb
high is over the E Atlantic near 29N35W producing fair weather. Of
note in the upper levels, upper level diffluence is over the W
Atlantic significantly enhancing convection. Expect the convection
over the W Atlantic to persist for the next 24 hours as the front
moves E and extends from 31N75W to 29N77W to S Florida near
27N80W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa

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