[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 070954
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
554 AM EDT Wed Jun 7 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0945 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the central Atlc with axis extending from
11N32W to 03N33W, moving west at 10 kt within the last 24 hours.
The wave is in a region of mainly unfavorable wind shear, and
Saharan dry air and dust is in its environment, which is limiting
the convection to scattered showers from 03N-08N between 32W-37W.

A tropical wave is in the central Atlc with axis extending from
10N45W to 03N46W, moving west at 20 kt within the last 24 hours.
The wave is in a region of unfavorable wind shear N of 07N and is
being affected by Saharan dry air intrusion to its environment.
Abundant moisture associated with the ITCZ and middle level
divergent flow support scattered heavy showers from 04N-07N
between 44W-50W.

A tropical wave is in the E Caribbean with axis extending from
16N61W to inland Venezuela near 08N65W, moving west at 5-10 kt
within the last 24 hours. The wave is in an unfavorable wind shear
environment, however shallow moisture shown in CIRA LPW support
isolated showers and tstms across the Lesser Antilles and
Caribbean waters E of 69W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 10N15W to
08N19W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from
08N19W to 06N31W...resumes west of a tropical wave near 06N35W to
05N44W...resumes west of a second tropical wave near 05N48W to the
coast of Guyana near 06N58W. Besides from the convection
associated with the tropical waves, scattered heavy showers and
tstms are off the coast of Africa from 05N-11N E of 20W and from
04N-07N between 37W-44W. Scattered moderate convection is
elsewhere within 120 nm either side of the ITCZ.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A sharp middle to upper level trough extending southward to a
broad base over the Bay of Campeche supports a 1004 mb low
centered near 29N86W with associated surface trough extending
from the low SW to 27N90W to 26N94W. Scattered showers are
occurring within 60 nm either side of the surface trough. Farther
east, across the SE Gulf and Florida peninsula, scattered to
numerous heavy showers and tstms are occurring from 22N-28N E of
86W being enhanced primarily by middle to upper level diffluence
E of the upper level trough. The broad area of lower pressure is
forecast to move slowly E-NE and into the SW North Atlc waters by
Thursday. The lingering frontal trough is expected to extend
across the Florida peninsula through late in the week bringing a
high probability of convection across the SE Gulf and southern
Florida peninsula with possible strong storms and heavy rainfall.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A middle to upper level ridge and associated NE flow aloft
continues to provide overall dry conditions and clear skies across
much of the western Caribbean. Diffluence aloft between this ridge
and the upper trough over the Gulf of Mexico supports isolated
showers over western Cuba and adjacent waters, the Yucatan
Channel and the NW Caribbean west of 83W. Otherwise, over the
eastern Caribbean another upper level ridge is anchored over the
tropical Atlc. Primarily S-SW flow aloft prevails E of 70W. This
diffluent environment along with the presence of a tropical wave
along 64W is providing focus for scattered to isolated showers
and tstms over the Lesser Antilles and Caribbean waters E of 69W.
The wave is forecast to move westward and increase cloudiness and
the probability of convection across the ABC Islands and northern
Venezuela today. Fresh to strong trades are expected to persist
across the central Caribbean as surface ridge axis remains
anchored to the N across the SW North Atlc region. This area of
trades is expected to persist through tonight and then diminish as
the ridge to the N weakens and slides eastward.

...HISPANIOLA...

Mostly clear skies prevail across the island as northerly flow
aloft continues to provide a subsident environment for the region.
A tropical wave is expected to move S of the island late today
into Thursday and provide increased cloudiness and the potential
of showers.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Southwesterly flow aloft on the eastern periphery of an upper
level trough over the Gulf of Mexico is providing scattered heavy
showers, tstms and gusty winds across the southern Florida
peninsula and SW North Atlc waters N of 24N W of 72W. This
activity lies within an area of maximum middle to upper level
diffluence and is expected to persist today as a surface low over
the northern Gulf of Mexico and the upper level trough will be
slow to move E-NE during the next couple of days. Otherwise,
surface ridging extends from 1023 mb high centered in the central
Atlc near 30N41W to the SE Bahamas providing overall fair
conditions for much of the eastern and central Atlc.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Ramos
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