[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 051106
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
706 AM EDT Mon Jun 5 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Please refer to the METEO-FRANCE High Seas Forecast, that is
listed on the website: WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-
MARINE/BULLETIN/GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. Gale-force winds are forecast
for the area that is called AGADIR. The OUTLOOK, for the 24 hours
that follow the forecast that is valid until 06/1200 UTC,
consists of: N or NE near gale or gale continuing in:
AGADIR, and between the islands of CANARIAS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 25W/27W from 13N
southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong rainshowers from 02N to 08N between
20W and 30W.

An Atlantic Ocean surface trough is along 43W/44W from 13N
southward moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Isolated moderate from
09N southward between 40W and 50W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 54W/55W from 13N
southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong rainshowers from 12N southward between
50W and 60W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 76W/77W from 18N
southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Scattered moderate to
strong from 06N to 10N between 72W and 77W in Colombia and its
coastal waters.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The Monsoon Trough passes through coastal sections of Guinea
near 10N15W to 06N23W. The ITCZ continues from 06N23W to 04N34W,
and 02N42W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong
rainshowers are from 03N to 10N from 20N eastward, and elsewhere
from 10N southward from 60W eastward.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level trough extends from a cyclonic circulation center
that is about halfway between San Angelo and San Antonio, in Texas,
into southern sections of Mexico near 17N99W, just to the west of
the Isthmus of Tehuantepec. Cyclonic wind flow covers Texas,
Mexico, and the Gulf of Mexico from 88W westward. Comparatively
drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor imagery, also
from 90W westward, in the Gulf of Mexico. Isolated moderate to
locally strong rainshowers are in the Gulf of Mexico from 25N
northward from 90W westward, and from 100W eastward. Isolated to
widely scattered moderate rainshowers are elsewhere in the Gulf
of Mexico from 90W eastward. Isolated moderate rainshowers are in
the Atlantic Ocean from Cuba northward from 70W westward. A
surface trough is along 25N96W, to a 1006 mb low pressure center
that is near 22N94W, to the northern coast of the Isthmus of
Tehuantepec of southern Mexico.

...CURRENT CONDITIONS AND WEATHER, FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM
SITES, FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

LIFR: none.

IFR: none.

MVFR: KEMK and KEIR.

CURRENT CONDITIONS AND WEATHER, FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE
U.S.A., FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

Texas: MVFR, and isolated moderate to strong thunderstorms, from
Palacios to Galveston and Huntsville. LOUISIANA: MVFR in the SW
part of the state. MISSISSIPPI: MVFR from McComb to the
Hattiesburg metropolitan area. ALABAMA: MVFR and light rain/
drizzle from Evergreen southwestward, to the coastal plains
between the Florida Panhandle and MISSISSIPPI. FLORIDA:
MVFR in the westernmost part of the Florida Panhandle. LIFR in
Perry. Rain in the Tampa/St. Petersburg metropolitan area. Rain
and thunder in Naples.

...FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA, THE
REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA, and HISPANIOLA...

An upper level trough extends from 22N61W in the Atlantic Ocean,
across the Virgin Islands, toward NE Colombia/NW Venezuela.
Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers from 10N
to 13N between 60W and 65W. Scattered to numerous strong in
Venezuela from 07N to 09N between 68W and 71W.

Middle level cyclonic wind flow covers the SW corner of the
Caribbean Sea, from 14N southward from 75W westward.

Upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the area from 78W
westward.

The monsoon trough extends from the Colombia/Panama border,
northwestward across Panama, beyond NW Costa Rica, into the
eastern Pacific Ocean.

24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the period that ended
at 05/0000 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are 0.03 in
Guadeloupe.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...for Port-au-Prince in Haiti: VFR. for the
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Santo Domingo: VFR. few cumulonimbus clouds.
Punta Cana: VFR. Santiago: VFR. Puerto Plata: VFR.

The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 mb shows that NW wind flow will
move across the area during the first 24 hours of the 48-hour
forecast period. Northerly wind flow will move across Hispaniola
during day two. A ridge will be extending from Honduras/Nicaragua
to Hispaniola. The GFS MODEL forecast for 500 mb shows that
anticyclonic wind flow will span the entire area, either with an
anticyclonic circulation center, or with a ridge. The GFS MODEL
forecast for 700 mb shows that SE wind flow will move across the
area during the next 48 hours. Hispaniola will be on the southern
side of an east-to-west oriented Atlantic Ocean ridge.

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level trough is along 32N50W 28N53W 24N56W. This trough
appears to be merging/coming in line with the 22N61W-to-Virgin
Islands trough. A cold front passes through 32N51W to 31N53W. A
surface trough continues from 31N53W to 26N60W 24N68W. Rainshowers
are possible within 150 nm on either side of the line that passes
through 32N48W 27N55W 24N70W.

An upper level trough passes through 32N28W to 22N28W, and 09N34W.
No significant deep convective precipitation is apparent.

Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 16N
northward between Africa and the 31N53W-to-24N68W surface trough.
A 1028 mb high pressure center is near 35N29W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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