[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 042334
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
734 PM EDT Sun Jun 4 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

Tropical wave extends from 13N22W to 06N24W moving W 10-15 kt.
The wave coincides with 700 mb trough. SSMI TPW imagery also shows
a well defined moist area. Scattered moderate convection is
confined to the monsoon trough. Scattered showers are within 90 nm
of the remainder of the wave axis.

Tropical wave extends from 11N41W to 01N42W moving W 10-15 kt.
This wave continues to be suppressed by a generally drier airmass
aloft to the N of 07N. Scattered moderate convection is confined
to the monsoon trough.

Tropical wave extends from 18N73W to 09N74W moving W 10-15 kt.
TPW imagery shows moderate moisture associated with this wave.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted over
Hispaniola from 18N-20N between 69W-72W. The remainder of the
wave axis is void of convection.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 11N15W to
05N31W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from
05N31W to 04N41W, and continues W of a tropical wave from 04N43W
to the South American coast near 03N51W. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is along the African coast from 03N-
09N between 10W-15W. Widely scattered moderate convection is from
03N-08N between 18W-45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 04/2100 UTC, a 1005 mb low is centered over the Bay of
Campeche near 22N94W. Scattered moderate convection is over the
Bay of Campeche, and the Yucatan Peninsula from 17N-23N between
87W-91W. Further N, clusters of scattered moderate convection are
over the NW Gulf of Mexico, Texas, and Louisiana, N of 27W between
91W-98W. In the upper levels, a ridge axis extends from N Florida
to the Yucatan Peninsula with considerable upper level moisture
and cloudiness being advected from the EPAC to the Gulf of Mexico.
Isolated moderate convection is over the E Gulf, and Florida from
22N-29N between 80W-90W moving E. Expect precipitation to persist
over the Gulf for another 24 hours.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Scattered showers are over the NW Caribbean, and Cuba. These
showers are being enhanced by upper level diffluence E of the
upper ridge axis. A tropical wave is over the central Caribbean
producing scattered moderate to isolated strong convection over
Hispaniola. See above. Furthermore, the monsoon trough is
producing scattered moderate convection over N Colombia, Panama,
and Costa Rica. Elsewhere, scattered showers are over the Leeward
Islands, and the Windward Islands E of 64W mostly due to upper
level diffluence. 15-25 kt tradewinds are over most of the
Caribbean Sea with strongest winds along the coast of N Colombia.
Also of note in the upper levels, a patch of subsidence is over
the central Caribbean between 72W- 82W suppressing convection.
Expect over the next 24 hours for the tropical wave to move W with
convection.

...HISPANIOLA...

Presently scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
noted over Hispaniola from 18N-20N between 69W-72W due to a
tropical wave. Expect more showers and thunderstorms to advect
over the island over the next 24 hours.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Clusters of widely scattered moderate convection are over the W
Atlantic and the Bahamas N of 24N between 75W-80W mostly due to
upper level diffluence. The tail end of a dissipating stationary
front is also over the W Atlantic from 31N59W to 29N71W.
Scattered showers are within 60 nm of the front. A prefrontal
trough extends from 30N57W to 26N62W. Scattered moderate
convection is from 26N-32N between 54W-58W. A large 1029 mb high
is centered S of the Azores near 35N29W. A surface ridge axis
extends SW from the high to 26N57W. Two tropical waves are over
the tropical Atlantic. Please refer to the Tropical Waves section
for more details. Expect the convection over the W Atlantic to
persist for the next 24 hours.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa

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