[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 030548
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
148 AM EDT Sat Jun 3 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

Please refer to the METEO-FRANCE High Seas Forecast, that is
listed on the website: WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-
MARINE/BULLETIN/GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. Gale-force winds are forecast
for the area that is called AGADIR. The OUTLOOK, for the 24 hours
that follow the forecast that is valid until 04/0000 UTC,
consists of: the persistence of N or NE gale in AGADIR.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 44W/46W from 13N
southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Convective
precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds and isolated
moderate rainshowers from 10N southward between 40W and 50W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 63W/64W from 18N
southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Convective
precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from
09N to 15N between 57W and 59W. Isolated moderate to locally
strong rainshowers also cover the area that is from 10N to 20N
between 59W and 65W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The Monsoon Trough passes through coastal border sections of
Guinea and Sierra Leone near 09N13W, to 07N16W and 06N18W. The
ITCZ continues from 06N18W to 05N35W 05N45W and 04N53W in French
Guiana. Convective precipitation: widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong from 04N to 09N from 47W eastward, and from 05N to
10N between 50W and 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...and from the NW CARIBBEAN SEA
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE BAHAMAS, INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
OCEAN...

Upper level anticyclonic wind flow spans the area. An upper level
ridge extends from western Honduras, across NW Cuba, across the
NW Bahamas, to 30N70W. A surface trough extends from the Florida
Panhandle into SE Louisiana, into the NW corner of the Gulf of
Mexico near 26N95W. Scattered strong rainshowers are within 60
nm to 90 nm on either side of the line from 16N91W in western
Guatemala to 25N91W in the Gulf of Mexico. Broken to overcast
multilayered clouds and other rainshowers are to the east of 96W
in the Gulf of Mexico, and to the NW of the line that passes
through 32N60W 26N70W 23N80W in the Atlantic Ocean.

...CURRENT CONDITIONS AND WEATHER, FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM
SITES, FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

LIFR: none.

IFR: none.

MVFR: KGBK, KEIR, and KDLP.

CURRENT CONDITIONS AND WEATHER, FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE
U.S.A., FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

Texas: MVFR from the NAS Corpus Christi to Victoria and Port
Lavaca. LOUISIANA: MVFR from New Iberia-to-the areas that are
along the southern side of Lake Pontchartrain, southward and
southeastward. Rain has ended for the moment in some parts.
MISSISSIPPI: MVFR from Gulfport to Pascagoula. ALABAMA:
MVFR from Mobile to Gulf Shores. Rain in the Mobile metropolitan
area. FLORIDA: light rain in parts of the Fort Myers metropolitan
area.  Panhandle and Big Bend from Cross City northwestward.

...THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA, and HISPANIOLA...

An upper level trough extends from 25N64W to Puerto Rico, to
10N70W in NW Venezuela. A 63W/64W tropical wave also is moving
through the area. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers
cover the Atlantic Ocean and the Caribbean Sea from 10N to 26N
between 56W and 73W, including at the easternmost tip of the
Dominican Republic.

24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the period that ended
at 03/0000 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are 0.68 in
Tegucigalpa in Honduras, and 0.02 in Guadeloupe.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...for the DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Santo Domingo:
VFR. La Romana: VFR. Punta Cana: rainshowers and lingering
thunder. Santiago and Puerto Plata: VFR.

The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 mb shows that N wind flow will
move across the area during the next 48 hours. A ridge will be
extending from the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea to Hispaniola.
The GFS MODEL forecast for 500 mb shows that initial S wind flow
for about 6 hours, will transition into cyclonic wind flow with a
trough for another six hours. Anticyclonic wind flow will span
the entire area during the rest of the 48-hour forecast period.
Multiple ridges, and/or anticyclonic circulation centers, will
span the entire area. The GFS MODEL forecast for 700 mb shows
that SE wind flow will move across the area during the next 48
hours. An east-to-west oriented ridge will extend from the
Atlantic Ocean to Hispaniola.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level trough passes through 32N13W to 26N21W to 13N33W.
A stationary front passes through 32N29W to 31N33W beyond 32N36W.
continues from 32N36W beyond 33N39W. No significant deep
convective precipitation is apparent.

A surface trough remains from the cold front of 48 hours ago. The
trough is along 28N59W to 25N68W. Rainshowers are possible within
60 nm on either side of the line that passes through 32N49W to
30N54W 29N60W 26N70W.

Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 15N
northward between Africa and 57W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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