[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 011044
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
644 AM EDT Thu Jun 1 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Please refer to the METEO-FRANCE High Seas Forecast, that is
listed on the website: WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-
MARINE/BULLETIN/GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. The OUTLOOK, for the 24
hours that follow the forecast that is valid until 02/0000 UTC,
consists of: the persistence or threat of NORTHERLY near gale or
gale in AGADIR, and locally near islands of CANARIAS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 37W/39W from 13N
southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Convective
precipitation: isolated to widely scattered moderate and
locally strong in the ITCZ from 03N to 09N between 30W and 40W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 51W/53W from 12N
southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Convective
precipitation: scattered to numerous strong from 05N to 09N
between 50W and 55W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 78W/80W, from 12N
southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Convective
precipitation: scattered moderate to strong is in the SW corner of
the Caribbean Sea, from 12N southward between 80W and 83W.
Isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere from 05N to the
south of Panama, to 12N in the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea,
between 77W and 84W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The Monsoon Trough passes through coastal sections of Guinea
near 10N14W, to 08N18W and 06N23W. The ITCZ continues from 06N23W
to 05N40W and 03N50W. Convective precipitation: widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong from 02N to 09N between 09W and 55W,
not counting the precipitation that may be directly related to the
tropical waves.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level ridge is along 85W/86W. Upper level anticyclonic
wind flow spans the entire Gulf of Mexico.

A surface trough is along the Texas Gulf coast, from interior
sections of the Deep South to the middle Texas coast, and then
into East Texas. Clouds and isolated moderate rainshowers are
present from the trough eastward to the coast, into East Texas.

A surface trough is along 91W/92W, from 23N to SW Guatemala.
Upper level diffluent wind flow is near the surface trough.
Scattered to numerous strong rainshowers have been covering the
areas from Honduras to Mexico, and in parts of the Gulf of Mexico,
to 22N between 89W and 95W, during the late night and early
morning hours of today. Precipitation has been in this area for
the last few days. Scattered strong rainshowers are from 23N to
26N between 88W and 91W in the Gulf of Mexico, also.

Numerous strong rainshowers are in the southern part of Mexico,
in and just to the west of the Gulf of Tehuantepec, on the
eastern Pacific Ocean side of Mexico. Tropical Depression TWO-E is
just off the coast of Mexico, about 170 nm to the WSW of the
center of the Gulf of Tehuantepec.

A surface ridge extends from the NW Bahamas, across Florida,
toward SE Louisiana.

...CURRENT CONDITIONS AND WEATHER, FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM
SITES, FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

LIFR: none.

IFR: KVQT and KMIS.

MVFR: KXIH, KHHV, KEMK, KEIR, and KIKT.

CURRENT CONDITIONS AND WEATHER, FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE
U.S.A., FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

Texas: MVFR/IFR/LIFR inland in the Deep South. MVFR in Rockport,
Angleton/Lake Jackson. Light rain in Galveston. Rain from Tomball
to Conroe. Rain has ended for the moment in Huntsville. Light
rain in Jasper. LOUISIANA: Rain, mostly light and sometimes
heavier, from Baton Rouge southward. MISSISSIPPI: IFR, with
smaller areas of LIFR, from Natchez-to-Hattiesburg southward.
Alabama: IFR in Evergreen.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA and HISPANIOLA...

An upper level trough is along 27N67W, extends from a 23N66W
cyclonic circulation center, across Hispaniola and the Mona
Passage, to 16N68W in the Caribbean Sea, to Lake Maracaibo in NW
Venezuela. Isolated moderate rainshowers cover the Atlantic Ocean
and the Caribbean Sea from NW Venezuela to 24N in the Atlantic
Ocean between 60W and 72W. Isolated moderate to locally strong
rainshowers in Colombia from 05N to 09N between 73W and 76W.

24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the period that ended
at 01/0000 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are 0.01 in
Tegucigalpa in Honduras, and a TRACE in Guadeloupe.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...for the DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Santo Domingo:
VFR. few cumulonimbus clouds. Punta Cana: VFR. Santiago: VFR. few
cumulonimbus clouds. earlier rain has ended for the moment.
Puerto Plata: VFR.

The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 mb shows that cyclonic wind flow
will transition into northerly wind flow, with time, as the
current trough moves eastward to Puerto Rico, during the first 24
hours of the 48-hour forecast period. The GFS MODEL forecast for
500 mb shows that a cyclonic circulation center is going to be
close to the easternmost part of the Dominican Republic during the
next 48 hours. Expect cyclonic wind flow immediately around the
cyclonic center, and NE wind flow on the fringes to the west of
the cyclonic wind flow. The GFS MODEL forecast for 700 mb shows
that day one will consist of NE and E wind flow for the first half
of the day, followed by cyclonic wind flow with an inverted
trough. Expect SE wind flow during day two, with the influence of
an east-to-west oriented ridge, from the Atlantic Ocean along 20N,
to Hispaniola.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level trough is along 30N19W, to 22N33W, and to 10N41W.
No significant deep convective precipitation is apparent.

A cold front passes through 32N50W to 27N55W and 26N62W.
Rainshowers are possible from 23N northward between 44W and 66W.

An upper level cyclonic circulation center has become cut off near
25N52W. It is surrounded by comparatively drier air in subsidence
for a radius of 90 nm. This center is between the 30N19W-to-10N41W
trough, and the trough that is passing through Hispaniola and the
Mona Passage.

A surface ridge extends from a 1024 mb high pressure center that
is near 33N25W, through a 1023 mb high pressure center that is
near 30N40W, to 26N50W and 24N61W. Surface anticyclonic wind flow
covers the Atlantic Ocean to the west of the 32N52W 26N60W cold
front. A 1023 mb high pressure center is near 29N67W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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