[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 010017
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
817 PM EDT Mon Jul 31 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Depression Emily is inland near 27.8N 81.7W or about 26
nm NW of Sebring, Florida at 31/2100 UTC moving ENE at 10 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Latest satellite imagery
and NWS mosaic doppler radar show scattered moderate convection
within 45 nm of the center. Emily is expected to produce
additional rainfall of 1 to 2 inches across southeast Florida,
with isolated storm totals up to 8 inches possible. Slow
strengthening is forecast after Emily emerges over the Atlantic
Ocean on Tuesday. See the latest NHC forecast/advisory under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends from 19N26W to
14N27W to 07N27W, moving west at 15 kt. Satellite imagery shows
an exposed cyclonic vortex at 14N27W with no precipitation. This
portion of the wave is embedded in an extensive area of Saharan
dry air and dust. SSMI TPW imagery shows an area of moisture S of
13N. The 700 mb guidance from the GFS model indicates broad
troughing with this wave. Scattered showers are within 120 nm of
the wave axis S of 12N.

A central Atlantic tropical wave extends from 18N46W to 05N47W,
moving west at 15 kt. SSMI TPW imagery shows a large area of
moisture around this wave. The 700 mb guidance from the GFS model
also depicts a large trough with this wave. The Saharan Air Layer
imagery shows dry air and dust N of this wave, N of 18N. widely
scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm of the wave axis,
S of 14N.

An eastern Caribbean Sea tropical wave extends from 18N69W to
10N70W, moving west at 15-20 kt. SSMI TPW imagery shows a large
area of moderate moisture around this wave. The 700 mb guidance
from the GFS model also depicts a small trough with this wave.
The Saharan Air Layer imagery shows dry air and dust NE of this
wave. widely scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm of
the wave axis.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from the west coast of African
coast near 15N17W to 11N30W to 10N40W to 09N50W, where
scatterometer data indicates the ITCZ begins and extends to
10N60W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical
waves, scattered moderate convection is from 07N-12N between
32W-37W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

The main feature is Tropical Depression Emily over central
Florida. See the special features section above. A surface trough
is over Gulf of Mexico from 27N84W to 26N94W. Scattered showers
are within 60 nm of the trough. Scattered moderate convection is
also over the Straits of Florida, W Cuba, and the Yucatan
Peninsula. In the upper levels, a large upper level high is
centered over W Texas producing NE upper level flow over the Gulf
of Mexico. Expect Emily to be in the W Atlantic near 30N78W in 24
hours.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave is moving across the eastern Caribbean. See above.
Airmass scattered moderate convection is noted over E Cuba, and
Jamaica. Further S, scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is over Nicaragua, Costa Rica, and the SW Caribbean due
to the eastern extent of the Pacific monsoon trough. In the upper
levels, an upper level low is centered S of Jamaica near 15N78W.
Expect the tropical wave and the monsoon trough to be the dominate
weather features over the next 24 hours.

...HISPANIOLA...

Scattered showers and thundeer the NW portion of
the island. This activity is expected to move W with the tropical
wave. Expect dryer conditions in 24 hours.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Two tropical waves are moving across the tropical North Atlantic.
See tropical waves section above. A cold front extends from
32N76W southwest to a 1012 mb low at 30N79W, and continues
southwest to central Florida. Scattered moderate convection is
within 300 nm S of the front to include the N Bahamas. A 1027 mb
high is centered over the central Atlantic near 34N44W producing
fair weather.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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