[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 311206
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 AM EDT Mon Jul 31 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1145 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Newly upgraded Tropical Storm Emily near the west-central coast
is centered near 27.7N 83.2W or about 40 nm WSW of Tampa,
Florida and 45 nm WNW of Sarasota,  Florida moving E at 7 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Scattered moderate to
strong convection is noted within 45 nm of the center in the
southeast semicircle, and within 30 nm of the center in the
northwest semicircle. Similar convection is confined to the SE
Gulf from 25N-27N east of 83W. Scattered moderate convection
seen within 15 nm either side of a line from 26N83W to 26N85W to
26N89W denote developing outer-rainbands feeding into Emily.
Emily is forecast to reach the Florida by early this afternoon
near 27.7N 82.W while maintaining the current wind speed. Emily
is then forecast to track across central Florida through tonight,
and offshore the east-central Florida coast early on Tuesday as
a depression. Emily is then expected to track northeastward to
near 29.8N 78.6W as a minimal tropical storm by Tuesday
afternoon and to near 31.6N 76.5W by late Tuesday night. Emily
is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 4 inches
through tonight along the west coast of central Florida between
the Tampa Bay area and Naples, with isolated amounts up to 8
inches possible. Elsewhere across central and south Florida, 1
to 2 inches of rain is expected with localized amounts of up to
4 inches possible. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the E Atlc with axis extending from 19N21W
to 07N22W, moving W at 5 kt within the last 24 hours. The wave is
in a region of low to moderate vertical wind shear N of 10N,
however is being severely affected by Saharan dry air and dust,
which support the lack of convection in that region of the wave.
Convection in the vicinity of the monsoon trough has significantly
reduced the last couple of hours. Isolated showers are from 06N to
15N E of 23W.

A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic with axis extending
from 18N42W to 06N42W, moving west at 20 kt within the last 24
hours. The wave is in a region of low vertical wind shear, but is
being severely affected by Saharan dry air and dust intrusion to
its environment. Moisture confined to the monsoon trough along
with upper level diffluence support scattered showers from 04N to
10N between 40W and 48W.

A tropical wave is in the E Caribbean with axis extending from
18N64W to 10N64W, moving west at 15 kt within the last 24 hours.
The wave is in a low to moderate vertical wind shear region and
continues to be affected by Saharan dry air and dust intrusion to
its environment, which is limiting the convection to isolated
showers mainly in the SE Caribbean, including the Windward
Islands.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the west African coast near 19N16W
to 11N26W to 10N52W. The ITCZ extends from 10N52W to 10N61W. For
convection information see the Tropical Waves section above.
Otherwise, a cluster of heavy showers and tstms is from 08N to 12N
between 28W and 32W and from 08N to 11N between 50W and 54W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

Tropical depression six formed at 1000 UTC over Tampa adjacent
waters where is generating heavy showers and scattered tstms. See
the special features section for further details. With no supportformer stationary front attached to the low that
spawned now Tropical Storm Emily has started to dissipate along
26N87W to 26N93W to the coast of Texas near 28N96W. Isolated
showers are within 90 nm S of this weak frontal boundary. The
northern portion of a tropical wave over the EPAC waters reaches
the Bay of Campeche where it supports isolated showers. Except
for Tropical Storm Emily associated winds, gentle to light winds
prevail elsewhere. The center of the depression is expected to
move inland over the central Florida peninsula later today and
move across central Florida through tonight. The depression is
forecast to move offshore of the east- central Florida coast
early Tuesday. The depression is expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 2 to 4 inches through Monday night along the
west coast of central Florida between the Tampa Bay area and
Naples, with isolated amounts up to 8 inches possible. Elsewhere
across central and south Florida, 1 to 2 inches of rain are
expected with localized amounts of up to 4 inches possible.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave is moving across the E Caribbean, however it lacks
deep convection. See the tropical waves section above for further
details. Heavy showers and tstms continue in SW Haiti and in the
Windward Passage being supported by an upper level low centered SE
of Jamaica and middle level diffluent flow. These showers are
forecast to dissipate later this morning as the upper level low
continue to drift SW. In the SW Caribbean, the eastern North
Pacific monsoon trough continue to support scattered to numerous
heavy showers and tstms S of 13N with possible gusty winds. While
most of the Caribbean has light winds, scatterometer data shows
20-25 kt tradewinds over the south-central Caribbean.

...HISPANIOLA...

Heavy showers and tstms continue in SW Haiti and in the Windward
Passage being supported by an upper level low centered SE of
Jamaica and middle level diffluent flow. These showers are
forecast to dissipate later this morning as the upper level low
drifts SW.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Two tropical waves are moving across the tropical North Atlantic;
see tropical waves section above. A stationary front extends from
31N77W SW to a 1012 mb low near 29N80W. The deep layer trough that
supports the front also support isolated heavy showers and tstms N
of 24N W of 70W and N of 28 between 64W and 70W. Expect continued
convection over the next two days as the front remains stationary
before weakening into a trough Tuesday night. A large 1028 mb
high is centered over the central Atlantic near 33N42W supporting
fair weather.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Ramos/Aguirre
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