[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 290908
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
508 AM EDT Sat Jul 29 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the E Atlc with axis extending from 16N22W
to 05N22W. The wave is in a region of low vertical wind shear and
is being engulfed by Saharan dry air and dust. Abundant low level
moisture along with middle to upper level diffluence support
scattered moderate convection from 06N to 13N E of 30W.

A tropical wave is in the central Atlc with axis extending from
18N40W to 07N41W, moving W at 10 kt within the last 24 hours. The
wave is in a region of low vertical wind shear, however is being
severely affected by Saharan dry air and dust intrusion to its
environment, which is hindering convection.

A tropical wave is in the central Atlc with axis extending from
22N52W to 09N53W, moving west at 20 kt within the last 24 hours.
The wave is in a moderate to strong vertical wind shear
environment and continues to be severely affected by Saharan dry
air and dust intrusion to its environment, which is inhibiting the
development of convection.

A tropical wave is in the central Caribbean with axis extending
from 20N68W to 10N68W, moving W at 10 kt within the last 24
hours. Water vapor imagery depict dry subsident air over the wave
also noticed in the CIRA LPW imagery. Besides dry air, strong
vertical wind shear is in the central Caribbean, which is
influencing the lack of deep convection at this time.

A tropical wave is in the W Caribbean with axis extending from
21N81W to 09N82W, moving W at 15 kt within the last 24 hours.
Isolated showers and tstms are within 90 nm off the coast of
Costa Rica and northern Panama being also supported by the E
extension of the EPAC monsoon trough. Otherwise, strong vertical
wind shear is in the W Caribbean, which is influencing the lack of
deep convection elsewhere. The wave will move across inland over
central America today.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 11N15W to 08N24W to 10N32W to
08N43W. The ITCZ extends from 08N43W to 08N58W. Aside from
convection related to the tropical wave described above, scattered
moderate isolated strong convection is from 05N to 11N between
31W and 38W and from 06N to 10N between 44W and 53W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge prevails across the basin. Water vapor imagery
and satellite derived winds indicate anticyclonic flow aloft
covering most of the Gulf, which is centered in northern Texas.
Deep layered subsidence accompany the flow over the Gulf west of
90W while upper level moisture prevails east of 90W. Scatterometer
and surface observational data depict light to gentle winds
across the basin. A mid to upper level trough will push a cold
front southward to the deep south by late today with an increase
in showers and thunderstorms along the Gulf coast. The front
itself will enter the northern Gulf on Sun with winds shifting to
the north. Increasing SW to W winds will develop south of the
front over the Gulf to 25N.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Two tropical waves are moving across the basin. Refer to the
section above for details on these features. Showers over S Cuba
adjacent waters have ceased, however the middle to upper-level
low centered over the Island formerly supporting the shower
activity will stay nearly stationary through early next week. With
shallow moisture in the region, local orography effects and
daytime heating, showers are expected to resume during the
afternoon/evening hours today. Diffluent flow to the E of the low
aloft along with th tropical wave across the central
Caribbean will support showers across Hispaniola through late
Sunday. Scatterometer data indicated fresh to strong trades over
the south-central Caribbean with generally light winds over the
western portion of the basin. Little change in the overall
conditions is expected through the weekend.

...HISPANIOLA...

Diffluent flow to the E of an upper-level low situated near
central Cuba along with the passage of a tropical wave across the
central Caribbean today will support scattered to isolated
showers across the Island later today through Sunday. Some
pockets of dry air will follow in behind the wave.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Three tropical waves are moving across the basin. Refer to the
section above for details. Diffluent flow E of an upper level-low
centered over Cuba continue to support scattered heavy showers and
tstms in the Great Bahama Bank and the central Bahamas. This
activity is expected to lift northward today in response to a
frontal boundary that will push off the southeastern United States
and move to the northwest portion of the basin late today through
Sunday. The remainder of the basin is under the influence of a
surface ridge anchored by a 1025 mb high centered near 30N39W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Ramos
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