[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 262336
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
735 PM EDT Wed Jul 26 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is off the W coast of Africa extending from
16N27W to 06N27W, moving W at 15 kt. The wave has a distinct
moist area as seen on SSMI TPW imagery. The wave location is in
conjunction with a 700 mb trough. The wave is in a region of
favorable to neutral vertical wind shear. It has,however,Saharan
dry air and dust N and W of the wave environment. Scattered
showers are within 180 nm of the wave axis.

A tropical wave is in the E Atlc with axis extending from 12N37W
to 03N37W, moving W at 10 kt. This wave has a low amplitude
surface reflection with moisture confined mostly along the monsoon
trough S of 12N. There is a 700 mb trough S of 12N. The wave is
in a region of favorable vertical wind shear, however, it
continues to be severely affected by Saharan dry air dust N of
12N. Scattered moderate convection is E of the wave axis from
8N-10N between 34W-37W. Scattered showers are within 180 nm of
the remainder of the wave axis.

A tropical wave is in the central Atlc with axis extending from
23N55W to 12N55W, moving W at 15 kt. The wave has a distinct
moist area as seen on SSMI TPW imagery. The wave location is in
conjunction with a large high amplitude 700 mb trough. The wave is
in a region of unfavorable vertical wind shear. Scattered moderate
convection is over the southern portion of the wave from 10N-13N
between 52W-57W. Scattered moderate convection is over the
northern portion of the wave from 22N-26N between 54W-58W.

A tropical wave is in E Caribbean with axis extending from 18N67W
to 07N66W, moving W at 15 kt. This wave has a low amplitude
surface reflection. The wave has a distinct moist area as seen on
SSMI TPW imagery S of 14N. The wave is under a large 700 mb
trough. The wave is in a region of unfavorable to neutral vertical
wind shear. Scattered showers are within 180 nm of the wave axis.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 13N17W to 11N30W to 07N43W . The
ITCZ begins near 07N43W and continues to 09N61W. Besides the
convection mentioned in the tropical wave section, scattered
moderate convection is along the monsoon trough from 08N-10N
between 30W-34W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1020 mb high is centered over the north central Gulf of Mexico
near 28N91W. 5-10 anticyclonic winds are noted around the high.
A surface trough is over the W Gulf of Mexico from 24N97W to
19N95W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within
180 nm of the trough axis. Elsewhere, clusters of widely scattered
moderate convection are over, the Florida Peninsula, the Straits
of Florida, W Cuba, the SE Gulf, and the N Yucatan Peninsula. In
the upper levels, an upper level low is centered over the NW Gulf
near 27N95W. Upper level moisture covers most of the Gulf. Expect
little change over the next 24 hours.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave is over the E Caribbean. See above. Elsewhere,
the extension of the Pacific monsoon trough is producing scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection over Costa Rica, Panama,
and the SW Caribbean S of 14N. 15-25 kt tradewinds are over most
of the Caribbean Sea with strongest winds over the central
Caribbean. In the upper levels, an upper level low is centered
over the SW Caribbean near 12N81W. Expect more convection over
the southern Caribbean over the next 24 hours.

...HISPANIOLA...

Scattered moderate convection is presently over Hispaniola.
Expect more convection to advect over the island over the next 24
hours due to the northern extent of a tropical wave.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Scattered showers are over the N Bahamas and the W Atlantic, N of
24N and W of 77W. A 1025 mb high is centered over the central
Atlantic near 31N45W. The high is producing fair weather. Surface
ridging is along 31N. In the tropics, there are three tropical
waves. See above. Of note in the upper levels, a large upper level
low is centered over the W Atlantic near 28N57W. Scattered
showers are within 360 nm of the center. No major changes expected
through next couple of days.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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