[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 252350
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
750 PM EDT Tue Jul 25 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is off the W coast of Africa extending from
16N21W to 06N22W, moving W at 10 kt. The wave has a distinct
moist area as seen on SSMI TPW imagery. The wave location is in
conjunction with a 700 mb trough. The wave is in a region of
favorable to neutral vertical wind shear. It has,however,Saharan
dry air and dust N and W of the wave environment. Scattered
showers are within 180 nm of the wave axis.

A tropical wave is in the E Atlc with axis extending from 14N33W
to 04N34W, moving W at 10 kt. This wave has a low amplitude
surface reflection with moisture confined mostly along the monsoon
trough S of 12N. There is a 700 mb trough S of 12N. The wave is
in a region of favorable vertical wind shear, however, it
continues to be severely affected by Saharan dry air dust N of
12N. Scattered showers are within 180 nm of the wave axis, S of
12N.

A tropical wave is in the central Atlc with axis extending from
23N49W to 11N49W, moving W at 15 kt. The wave has a distinct
moist area as seen on SSMI TPW imagery. The wave location is in
conjunction with a large high amplitude 700 mb trough. The wave
is in a region of unfavorable vertical wind shear. Scattered
showers are noted from 20N-23N between 46W-49W.

A tropical wave is in E Caribbean with axis extending from 18N61W
to 07N61W, moving W at 10-15 kt. This wave has a low amplitude
surface reflection. The wave has a distinct moist area as seen on
SSMI TPW imagery S of 14N. The wave is under a large 700 mb
trough. The wave is in a region of unfavorable to neutral vertical
wind shear. Isolated moderate convection is from 06N-13N between
60W-65W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from 13N16W to 10N24W to 08N34W to
06N40W. The ITCZ begins near 06N40W and continues to 10N50W to
13N59W. Besides the showers mentioned in the tropical wave
section, scattered showers are in from 07N-11N between 25W-31W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1021 mb high is centered over the north central Gulf of Mexico
near 28N90W. 5-10 anticyclonic winds are noted around the high.
Clusters of scattered moderate to isolated strong convection are
over the Florida Panhandle, the Florida Peninsula, W Cuba,the
Yucatan Peninsula, and the W Gulf from 22N-27N between 91W-98W.
In the upper levels, an upper level low is centered over the W
Gulf near 25N94W. Upper level moisture covers most of the Gulf.
Expect little change over the next 24 hours.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave is over the E Caribbean. See above. Elsewhere, a
surface trough extends from the W tip of Cuba to central
Nicaragua. Widely scattered moderate convection is over the Gulf
of Honduras, Honduras, and Nicaragua. Further S, the extension of
the Pacific monsoon trough is producing scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection over Costa Rica, Panama, the SW
Caribbean S of 11N, and N Colombia. 15-25 kt tradewinds are over
most of the Caribbean Sea with strongest winds over the central
Caribbean. In the upper levels, an upper level low is centered
over the SW Caribbean near 14N79W. Expect more convection over the
southern Caribbean over the next 24 hours.

...HISPANIOLA...

Scattered moderate convection is presently over W Hispaniola.
Expect more convection to advect over the island over the next 24
hours.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Scattered showers are over the N Bahamas and the W Atlantic, N of
24N and W of 77W. A 1026 mb high is centered over the central
Atlantic near 33N54W. Another 1028 mb high is centered over the E
Atlantic near 33N37W. Both highs are producing fair weather. In
the tropics, there are three tropical waves. See above. Of note
in the upper levels, a large upper level low is centered over the
W Atlantic near 26N54W. Scattered showers are within 360 nm of the
center. No major changes expected through next couple of days.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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