[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 250016
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
815 PM EDT Mon Jul 24 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is off the W coast of Africa extending from
16N18W to 06N18W, moving W at 10 kt. The wave has a distinct
moist area as seen on SSMI TPW imagery. The wave location is in
conjuction with a 700 mb trough. The wave is in a region of
favorable to neutral vertical wind shear. It has ,however,Saharan
dry air and dust N and W of the wave environment. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is E of the wave axis along
the coast of W Africa from 11N-16N between 15W-19W.

A tropical wave is in the E Atlc with axis extending from 15N29W
to 02N30W, moving W at 15 kt. This wave has a low amplitude
surface reflection with moisture confined mostly along the monsoon
trough S of 12N. There is a 700 mb trough S of 12N. The wave is
in a region of favorable vertical wind shear, however, it
continues to be severely affected by Saharan dry air dust N of
12N. Scattered showers are from 03N-10N between 28W-33W.

A tropical wave is in the central Atlc with axis extending from
22N44W to 17N42W to 11N42W, moving W at 10 kt. The wave has a distinct
moist area as seen on SSMI TPW imagery. The wave location is in
conjuction with a large high amplitude 700 mb trough. The wave is
in a region of favorable to neutral vertical wind shear. Scattered
showers are noted from 15N-23N between 41W-45W.

A tropical wave is in the central Atlc with axis extending from
18N54W to 07N56W, moving W at 10 kt. This wave has a low amplitude
surface reflection. The wave has a distinct moist area as seen on
SSMI TPW imagery S of 14N. The wave is under a large 700 mb
trough. The wave is in a region of unfavorable to neutral
vertical wind shear. Scattered showers are from 11N-14N between
53W-60W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from 12N16W to 07N30W to 07N39W.
The ITCZ begins near 07N39W and continues to 06N45W to 07N46W to
10N53W. Besides the convection mentionedin the tropical wave
section, scattered showers are from within 120 nm N of the monsoon
trough, and within 240 nm S of the monsoon trough.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

Surface ridging prevails across the Gulf waters with gentle to
light variable winds E of 91W and moderate easterly to
southeasterly flow over the W Gulf. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is over Cuba, and the Yucatan Peninsula. Widely
scattered moderate convection is over the SW Gulf S of 23N. Radar
imagery shows isolated showers remaining over Florida, and the NE
Gulf N of 29N. In the upper levels, an upper level low is centered
over the W Gulf near 25N92W. Upper level moisture covers most of
the Gulf. Expect little change over the next 24 hours.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

15-25 kt tradewinds are over the Caribbean Sea with strongest
winds over the central Caribbean. Most of the Caribbean E of 80W
is under dry air subsidence and unfavorable vertical wind shear,
which is supporting fair weather at the time. Cuba and the Yucatan
Peninsula have seperate upper level diffluence areas producing
convection. In the SW basin, the eastern extension of the E
Pacific monsoon trough support scattered heavy showers and tstms S
of 11N W of 80W.

...HISPANIOLA...

Isolated showers are presently over Hispaniola. Upper level dry
air and subsidence prevails over the island. Expect convection to
advect over the Dominican Republic Tue evening.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Upper level divergence between an upper level high centered along
the Georgia coast and the SW periphery of a broad upper level high
centered near 34N54W support scattered heavy showers and tstms in
the SW basin W of 70W. In the tropical Atlc, four waves are over
the basin. Refer to the section above for details. The remainder
of the basin is under the influence of a broad surface ridge
anchored by a 1026 mb high centered near 31N58W, and a 1031 mb
high over the Azores near 38N27W. No major changes expected
through next couple of days.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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