[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 171030
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
630 AM EDT Mon Jul 17 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Low pressure is centered near 10.5N49W. Scattered moderate
isolated strong convection is noted within 120 nm northwest
semicircle of the low. Environmental conditions are marginally
conducive for further development of this system and there is a
medium chance that the low will develop into a tropical cyclone in
the next 48 hours. Please refer to the latest Tropical Weather
Outlook for more information on this low.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 20N32W to 03N33W. The wave is
moving westward about 10-15 kt.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 19N53W to 04N54W. The wave is
moving westward near 15 kt.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 24N81W to 06N81W. The wave is
moving westward near 15 kt.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 19N16W to 09N37W to low pres near
10.5N49W. The ITCZ extends from 10.5N49W to 09N60W. Scattered
moderate isolated strong convection was noted within 30 nm north
and 120 nm south of the monsoon trough between 35W and 45W.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection was noted within 120
nm northwest semicircle of the low.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak pressure pattern prevails over the Gulf of Mexico. As a
result benign marine conditions prevail over the area. Winds are
generally in the light to gentle range with seas of 1-2 ft. High
pressure will build across the region early this week and prevail
through the remainder of the week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave is moving through the western Caribbean, helping
enhance convection over this area. A weak pressure pattern
prevails over the forecast area producing moderate to fresh winds
prevail over the eastern and central Caribbean, and light to
gentle winds over the western Caribbean. High pressure will build
north of the area early this week, which will tighten the pressure
gradient and bring an increase to the tradewinds across the area.

...HISPANIOLA...

Active diurnal convection has dissipated over the island. Expect
another round of afternoon thunderstorms to develop and last into
the early evening hours today.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Central Atlantic high pressure centered near 35N39W extends a
ridge westward to the southeast United States. As typical for this
time of year, tropical waves are moving through the tropical
Atlantic waters. Low pressure has developed within the monsoon
trough near 10.5N48W. Active convection associated to this low is
noted within 90 nm northwest semicircle of the low as noted in the
ITCZ/ monsoon trough section.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
AL
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