[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 161732
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
132 PM EDT Sun Jul 16 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A central Atlantic tropical wave has an axis extending from
14N48W to 04N50W, moving westward at 5 to 10 knots. The wave has
large areas of dry Saharan air to its N and W, but remains
embedded in an area of deep layer moisture. Scattered moderate
convection is E of the wave axis from 08N-14N between 43W-49W.

A central Caribbean tropical wave has an axis extending from
Jamaica at 18N78W to E Panama at 07N78W, moving westward at 20
kt. Satellite imagery shows a well-defined cloud structure, with
a low-level vorticity maximum on the southern portion of the wave
axis near 13N. Scattered moderate convection is from 09N-14N
between 78W-83W.

A western Caribbean tropical wave has an axis extending from
19N88W to 07N88W, moving westward at 15-20 knots. The northern
portion of the wave's axis is near Belize, and extends S to the E
Pacific. Isolated moderate convection is within 120 nm of the wave
axis.


...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from 14N17W to 09N30W to 08N40W
to 09N49W. The ITCZ extends from 08N51W to07N58W. Aside from the
convection related to the tropical wave along 50W, scattered
moderate convection is from 08N-15N between 18W-33W, and from
04N-14N between 33W-43W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough is approaching S Florida and the Straits of
Florida producing widely scattered moderate convection from 22N-
26N between 80W-84W. A surface trough is over the Bay of Campeche
from 22N90W to 17N93W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the
trough axis. Another surface trough is along the coast of Texas
from 30N93W to 27N97W. Scattered moderate convection is N of 26N
between 90W-98W. In addition, southerly return flow is producing
scattered moderate convection over the NE Gulf of Mexico and the
Florida Panhandle from 26N-32N between 83W-90W. In the upper
levels, an upper level low is centered over the Bay of Campeche
near 21N93W, with upper level moisture. Another small upper level
low is centered over S Florida near 25N80W. Expect more
convection over the N Gulf, and over the Bay of Campeche, over
the next 24 hours.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A couple of tropical waves are moving through the Caribbean Sea.
See the section above for details. Aside from the convection
related to these waves, an area of scattered moderate convection
is NW of Lake Maracaibo Venezuela. Scatterometer data depicts
gentle to moderate trades across the area. Expect additional
convection over the W Caribbean and Central America over the next
24 hours.

...HISPANIOLA...

Scattered moderate convection is presently over the Dominican
Republic. Expect the convection to spread to the rest of the
Island this evening. Also expect additional convection Monday
afternoon and evening.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A tropical wave is moving across the central Atlantic. See the
section above for details. A surface trough is analyzed over the
Bahamas from 27N78W to 22N79W. Scattered moderate convection is
within 120 nm of the trough axis. The remainder of the basin is
under the influence of a surface ridge, anchored by a 1029 mb
high centered near 35N36W. Of note in the upper levels, an upper
level low is centered near 29N69W. Scattered moderate convection
is from 25N-32N between 62W-65W. Expect additional convection
over the W Atlantic and the Bahamas over the next 24 hours.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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