[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 151737
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
137 PM EDT Sat Jul 15 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis from 13N46W to
04N48W, moving westward 10-15 knots. The wave has dry Saharan air
well west of the wave axis as depicted in the latest METEOSAT-9
Saharan Air Layer imagery. Widely scattered moderate convection is
within 120 nm of the wave axis.

A Caribbean tropical wave has its axis from 19N68W to 08N70W,
moving westward at 20 kt. Satellite imagery shows a well-defined
cloud structure, with a low-level vorticity maximum on the
southern portion of the wave axis near 14N. Scattered showers are
within 120 nm of the wave axis. Some of the showers and may
contain gusty winds.

A Caribbean tropical wave has its axis from 20N80W to 09N81W,
moving westward at 15-20 knots. The northern portion of the
wave's axis is near the Cayman Islands. Subsidence aloft and some
dry air is in the wave's environment. Scattered moderate
convection is over the SW Caribbean from 07N-13N between 76W-83W,
in vicinity of a monsoon trough.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from 12N17W to 09N30W to 08N48W to
06N54W. Aside from the convection related to the tropical wave
along 47W, widely scattered moderate convection is from 07N-13N
between 15W-30W, and from 00N-12N between 34W-44W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough is over the central Gulf of Mexico from 29N88W to
22N89W, moving W. Widely scattered moderate convection is over
the north central and NE Gulf from 26N-30N between 83W-91W. In the
upper levels, an upper level low is centered over the Bay of
Campeche near 21N93W, with upper level moisture. Expect more
convection over the N Gulf, and over the Bay of Campeche, over the
next 24 hours.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A couple of tropical waves are moving through the Caribbean Sea.
See the section above for details. Aside from the convection
related to these waves, an area of scattered moderate convection
is near Lake Maracaibo Venezuela. Scatterometer data depicts
gentle to moderate trades across the area. Expect additional
convection over the W Caribbean and Central America over the next
24 hours.

...HISPANIOLA...

Fair weather prevails across the island at this time. A tropical
wave is approaching from the east. This wave will generate
scattered convection and showers this evening through Sunday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A tropical wave is moving across the central Atlantic. See the
section above for details. A surface trough is analyzed over the
Bahamas from 26N77W to 22N77W. Scattered moderate convection is
within 90 nm of the trough axis. Another trough extends from
31N64W to 26N65W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of this
trough axis. The remainder of the basin is under the influence of
a surface ridge, anchored by a 1026 mb high centered near 33N54W.
Of note in the upper levels, an upper level low is centered near
28N67W enhancing showers. Expect additional convection over the W
Atlantic and the Bahamas over the next 24 hours.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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