[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 120005
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
804 PM EDT Tue Jul 11 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 21W/22W from 13N
southward. Convective precipitation: scattered strong from 06N to
08N between 26W and 28W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 37W/38W from 14N
southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Convective
precipitation: scattered strong from 02N southward between 39W and
43W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 58W from 18N southward,
moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Convective precipitation: widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong from 05N to 12N between 45W
and 56W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 75W/77W from 21N southward,
moving westward 10 to 15 knots, across SE Cuba. Convective
precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong in
SE Cuba. numerous strong in coastal Colombia from 09N to 13N
between 74W and 77W.

A tropical wave is along 91W/92W, from 20N southward, moving
westward 10 knots, through parts of SE Mexico and Guatemala.
Convective precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong
from southern Guatemala into the northern parts of the Yucatan
Peninsula.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough passes through northern Senegal near 16N16W,
to 10N21W, 08N30W, and 09N36W. The ITCZ continues from 09N36W to
08N41W, 09N49W, and 09N61W at the coast of Venezuela. Convective
precipitation: isolated moderate elsewhere from 13N southward
from 60W eastward.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

Upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the area from 93W
westward. Upper level cyclonic wind flow, with a trough, covers
interior sections of Mexico, from 100W westward. Rainshowers and
thunderstorms are in interior sections of Mexico, possibly
reaching the coastal waters of Mexico from 18N to 26N from 94W
westward.

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 20N88W, in the
Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico. Cyclonic wind flow, with a trough,
covers the central sections of the Gulf of Mexico. A surface
trough is along 29N84W 27N86W 24N87W. Convective precipitation:
isolated moderate from 24N northward between western Florida and
87W, and in NW Cuba. Scattered moderate to isolated strong along
the western sections of Florida, from Fort Myers to 30N.

Upper level anticyclonic wind flow moves across Florida into the
eastern one-third of the Gulf of Mexico.

...CURRENT CONDITIONS AND WEATHER, FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM
SITES, THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N
NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

LIFR: none.

IFR: none.

MVFR: none.

CURRENT CONDITIONS AND WEATHER, FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE
U.S.A., FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS: rain and thunder still are active in parts of the Houston
metropolitan area and surrounding smaller communities. light rain
and drizzle have ended for the moment in Jasper. LOUISIANA: rain
and thunder still are active, from Baton Rouge southward between
Lafayette and the southern side of Lake Pontchartrain. MISSISSIPPI:
rain in McComb only at the present time. ALABAMA: rain and thunder
in the Mobile metropolitan area. FLORIDA: drizzle has ended for
the moment in Mary Esther. rain and thunder at the Tyndall AFB in
Panama City. rainshowers and thunder from Fort Myers to the Tampa/
St. Petersburg metropolitan area. few towering cumulus clouds are
being observed at the Key West NAS. rain and thunder have ended
for the moment in Naples.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

Upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the Caribbean Sea from
20N southward between 64W and Guatemala.

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is in the Yucatan
Peninsula of Mexico near 20N88W. Convective precipitation:
isolated moderate in the central sections of the Yucatan
Peninsula.

The monsoon trough is along 11N75W 11N80W, beyond northern
sections of Costa Rica. Convective precipitation: earlier numerous
strong from 14N southward from 76W westward has weakened and
dissipated. Lingering rainshowers and convective debris clouds are
from 16N southward from 77W westward.

24-hour rainfall totals in inches, for the period that ended at
11/1200 UTC, according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are: 0.80 in
Nassau in the Bahamas, 0.57 in Merida in Mexico, and a TRACE
in Guadeloupe.

...HISPANIOLA...

Broad upper level anticyclonic wind flow is moving across the
island. The anticyclonic wind flow has moved from the south
central and southwestern sections of the Caribbean Sea 24 hours
ago, more northward, in order to reach Hispaniola now. It appears
on satellite imagery that earlier rainshowers have been weakening
with time. It is possible that some rainshowers still may be
lingering.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...for Port-au-Prince in Haiti: VFR. scattered
cumulonimbus clouds. for the DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Barahona: VFR.
few cumulonimbus clouds. Santo Domingo: VFR. La Romana and Punta
Cana: VFR. few cumulonimbus clouds. Santiago: VFR. earlier rain
and thunder have ended for the moment. Puerto Plata: VFR. few
cumulonimbus clouds.

The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 mb shows that broad cyclonic wind
flow will encompass the area during the next 48 hours. A NW-to-SE
oriented trough and a cyclonic circulation center will be present
across the island. The GFS MODEL forecast for 500 mb shows that an
inverted trough will move across the area, spreading cyclonic
wind flow. The GFS MODEL forecast for 700 mb shows that a NW-to-SE
oriented ridge will be present for the first 12 hours to 18
hours, bringing anticyclonic wind flow to the island. Cyclonic
wind flow will cover Hispaniola for the rest of the time, with an
inverted trough, moving westward across the area.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level trough extends from the Madeira Archipelago, to the
Canary Islands, to 20N26W. Rainshowers are possible in low level
clouds that are 20N northward from 40W eastward.

A surface trough is along 45W/47W from 20N to 26N. Convective
precipitation: scattered moderate to isolated strong from 24N to
25N between 46W and 47W. rainshowers are possible elsewhere from
17N to 27N between 44W and 50W.

A surface trough is along 69W from 21N to 26N. A 1014 mb low
pressure center is along the trough, near 23N. This low pressure
center is the remnants of a T.D. FOUR. Convective precipitation:
isolated moderate from 18N to 25N between 60W and 71W.

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is 27N60W, about
520 nm to the ENE of the remnant of T.D. FOUR. Convective
precipitation: isolated moderate from 22N northward between
52W and 62W.

A second surface trough is along 71W/73W from 26N to 31N.
Convective precipitation: isolated to widely scattered moderate
from 23N northward between 70W and 80W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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