[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 072322
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
721 PM EDT Fri Jul 7 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Remnants of Tropical Depression Four is centered near 16.5N 52.5W
at 07/2100 UTC or about 512 nm east of the Lesser Antilles,
moving WNW at 18 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1012
mb. Maximum sustained winds are 20 kt with gusts to 30 kt.
Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm of the low center.
Please see the last NHC Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC and the last full Forecast/Advisory under
the AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is over the far eastern Atlantic with axis extending
from 16N22W to 05N24W, moving W at 10 kt. The wave is in a region
of favorable to neutral wind shear. However, extensive intrusion
of Saharan dry air and dust into the wave's environment continue
to limit deep convection N of 09N. Upper level diffluence along
with abundant moisture associated with the monsoon trough support
isolated moderate convection from 05N-09N between 20W-25W.

A tropical wave is over the eastern Caribbean Sea with axis
extending from 19N67W to inland Venezuela near 10N67W, moving
W at 20 kt. The wave is in a region of favorable wind shear.
However, dry air subsidence from aloft as indicated by water vapor
imagery hinder the development of deep convection. Shallow
moisture shown in CIRA LPW imagery allows for scattered showers
across the E Caribbean E of 67W.

A tropical wave is over the Bay of Campeche and S Mexico with axis
extending from 23N90W to 15N92W, moving W at about 20-25 kt. The
wave is in a region of unfavorable wind shear. However, shallow
moisture and upper level diffluent flow support scattered moderate
to isolated strong convection within 120 nm of the wave axis.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough axis extends from 14N17W to 07N24W to 05N34W.
The Intertropical Convergence Zone extends from 05N34W to 03N43W
to 04N52W. Aside from the convection related to the tropical wave
E of the Cape Verde Islands, widely scattered moderate convection
is from 01N-05N between 38W-55W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A tropical wave is over the Bay of Campeche and S Mexico
producing scattered moderate to isolated strong convection. See
above. A 1019 mb high is centered over the NE Gulf near 28N87W
with 5 kt anticyclonic winds. Radar imagery shows scattered
moderate convection over W Cuba. Isolated moderate convection is
over the Straits of Florida, Florida, and the other N Gulf States
to include Texas. In the upper levels, a small upper level low is
centered over Mexico near 23N101W. Another small upper level low
is centered over the SE Gulf near 26N85W. Expect the tropical wave
to move W over the next 24 hours with convection. Otherwise,
expect little change.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave is moving across the E Caribbean. See above.
Scattered moderate convection is over W Cuba. Scattered moderate
to isolated strong convection is over the Yucatan Peninsula, and
Guatemala. Similar convection is over the SW Caribbean, Panama,
Costa Rica, and S Nicaragua. 10-25 kt tradewinds are elsewhere
over the Caribbean with strongest winds along the coast of N
Colombia. In the upper levels, a small upper level high is
centered over the NW Caribbean near 18N88W. Expect the tropical
wave to move W over the next 24 hours with convection. Also
expect convection to continue over the SW Caribbean over the next
24 hours.

...HISPANIOLA...

Presently scattered showers are over E Hispaniola due to the
approach of a tropical wave. Expect the Mona Passage and E
Hispaniola to have more scattered showers over the next 24 hours
due to the tropical wave.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The remnant low of Tropical Depression Four and a tropical wave
are analyzed over the tropical Atlantic. See above. Scattered
showers are over the N Bahamas. A broad 1030 mb surface high is
centered north of our area near 35N39W producing fair weather. An
extensive area of African Saharan dust is situated over the
eastern and central Atlantic E of 50W, and is gradually shifting
westward.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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