[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 052342
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
742 PM EDT Wed Jul 5 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2330 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A 1009 mb surface low is centered near 12N37W. A tropical wave
extends from 19N37W to the low to 06N37W. through the low from
06N to 18N. Scattered moderate convection is observed within the
low. Environmental conditions remain favorable for tropical
cyclone formation today or Thursday while it moves westward at 10
to 15 kt across the tropical Atlantic. The system has a medium
chance of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave over the central Atlantic has an axis from 21N54W
to 09N55W, moving west at about 20 kt during the last 24 hours.
This wave had spun off the surface low now well to the east of the
wave axis. The wave is in a region of abundant Saharan dry air
and dust that is currently hindering convection.

A tropical wave located over the central Caribbean has an axis
extending from 20N71W to 10N72W, moving west at around 15 kt
during the past 24 hours. Abundant moisture is associated with
this wave mainly across the northern half. With this, scattered
moderate convection prevails across Hispaniola and adjacent
waters north of 18N.

A tropical wave is moving across the Yucatan Peninsula with axis
from 21N88W to 13N90W, moving westward at about 10-15 kt.
Moderate low-level moisture along with middle to upper-level
diffluence support numerous showers and thunderstorms south of 22N
between 85W-92W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends from 14N17W to 10N33W. The Intertropical
Convergence Zone extends from 09N39W to 10N53W. Aside from the
convection related to the Special Feature's low/wave, scattered
showers are observed in the vicinity of the ITCZ mainly south of
07N between 40W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge extends across the northern Gulf anchored by a
1021 mb high centered near 29N86W, which is forecast to remain in
this area through the next 24 hours. A tropical wave extends along
the Yucatan Peninsula enhancing convection in this area. Refer to
the Special Features section above for details. A light to
moderate anticyclonic breeze prevails across the basin. Little change
in this pattern is expected during the next couple of days.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave is moving across the basin. Refer to the section
above for details. The moderate pressure gradient over the
Caribbean between the Bermuda high to the north and the Colombian
low to the south is maintaining gentle to fresh tradewinds over
the basin, except over the waters north of Colombia and Venezuela
where fresh to near gale-force easterlies are pulsing every night
lasting through the early morning hours. Little change is
expected during the next couple of days.

...HISPANIOLA...

A tropical wave extends across the island enhancing scattered
showers and thunderstorms. Similar activity is expected through
the next 24 hours as the wave continues moving west.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Two tropical waves were analyzed over the basin. Refer to the
Special Features and Tropical Waves sections above for details.
Aside from the convection associated with surface low previously
mentioned, scattered showers and thunderstorms are north of
Hispaniola to 21N supported by a diffluence aloft and a tropical
wave. A broad 1030 mb surface high is centered north of our area
near 35N38W. This high continues to dominate the weather across
the basin. To the south of the high and away from the surface low
described above, moderate to fresh trade winds prevail across the
basin. This synoptic pattern will change little through the next
couple of days.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA

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