[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 040005
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 PM EDT Mon Jul 3 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2345 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is over the eastern Atlantic with axis extending
from 19N27W to 07N28W, moving westward at 20 kt within the last 24
hours. The wave is in a region of favorable wind shear, however
the northern portion of the wave N of 12N is being affected by
Saharan dry air also noticed in CIRA LPW imagery. S of 12N, the
wave continue embedded in the moist monsoonal flow, which along
with middle to upper level diffluence support scattered heavy
showers from 09N to 12N between 25W and 31W.

A tropical wave is over the central Atlantic with axis extending
from 15N34W to 05N34W, moving west at about 5 kt within the last
24 hours. A broad 1011 mb surface low is detached from the wave,
and is best satellite estimated position is near 09N33W based on
low-level cloud motion and on Ascat data. The atmospheric
conditions are similar to the wave east of it already described
above. Scattered showers are from 05N to 11N between 30W and 40W.

A tropical wave is moving across the Lesser Antilles. Its axis
extends from 19N58W to 08N59W. The wave is in a region of
unfavorable wind shear and abundant Saharan dry air, which is
limiting convection to isolated showers S of 20N between 57W and
63W.

A tropical wave is in the central Caribbean with axis extending
from 19N70W to 10N72W, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Satellite
derived data indicate the wave is in a region of unfavorable wind
shear, however the wave is associated with abundant moisture from
the surface to 850 mb that along with upper level diffluence
support scattered heavy showers and tstms across Hispaniola and
southern adjacent waters to 15N.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough axis extends from the west coast of Africa
near 13N17W and continues along 10N28W to 08N44W. The
Intertropical Convergence Zone extends from 08N44W to the coast of
Guyana near 07N58W. Convection observed near the Monsoon Trough
and ITCZ is mainly related to tropical waves. Refer to the section
above for details. Otherwise, numerous heavy showers and isolated
tstms are from 06N to 10N between 16W and 23W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1019 mb surface high is centered near 28N86W or in the SW
extension of the Atlantic high that reaches the northern and
central Gulf. This feature continues to dominate the flow pattern
basin-wide where it provides light to gentle variable winds.
Otherwise, shallow moisture and upper level diffluence support
scattered to isolated heavy showers within 90 nm off the coast of
Florida and across the Florida straits. Isolated showers are in
the Bay of Campeche. Otherwise, high pressure will remain in
place through the next 48 hours, maintaining generally gentle to
moderate east-southeast winds throughout except for gentle winds
from the west to northwest in direction over the NE Gulf.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level cyclonic circulation centered over the NW Caribbean
continues to support numerous heavy showers and tstms across Cuba
and adjacent waters, including the Yucatan Channel as well as N of
19N W of 75W. Upper level diffluence between this low and a ridge
covering the central and eastern Caribbean, along with abundant
low level moisture associated with a tropical wave moving across
the central Caribbean continue to support scattered heavy showers
over Hispaniola, Windward Passage and Mona Passage. Another
tropical wave is entering the E Caribbean tonight where it is
already generating scattered to isolated showers across the Lesser
Antilles. See the tropical waves section above for further
details. Otherwise, the eastern segment of the eastern Pacific
monsoon trough reaches to NW Colombia and support scattered to
isolated heavy showers in the SW basin. The upper level low will
slowly move west-northwest across the NW Caribbean through
Wednesday while weakening but will bring an increase of moisture
along with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms to the
remainder of the NW Caribbean, Cuba and portions of the northern
Yucatan Peninsula. Easterly winds will pulse from fresh to strong
over the south-central Caribbean through Wednesday.

...HISPANIOLA...

Upper level diffluence between an upper level cyclonic
circulation centered over the NW Caribbean and a ridge covering
the central and eastern Caribbean, along with abundant low level
moisture associated with a tropical wave moving across the central
Caribbean continue to support scattered heavy showers over
Hispaniola, Windward Passage and Mona Passage. Trailing moisture
associated with the wave is expected to increase showers and
thunderstorms over portions of Hispaniola and the nearby waters
through Tuesday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Three tropical waves are analyzed over the basin. Refer to the
Tropical Waves section above for details. A broad upper level low
centered over the NW Caribbean support scattered to isolated
showers and tstms over the Great Bahama Bank. The remainder of
the basin remains under the influence of a broad surface ridge,
anchored by a 1029 mb high centered N of the area. This synoptic
pattern will change little through Wednesday.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Ramos
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