[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 030001
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
801 PM EDT Sun Jul 2 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2345 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the E Atlc with axis extending from 15N19W
to 06N19W, moving west at about 5 kt within the last 24 hours.
The wave is entrenched in a very moist monsoonal flow that has
become well established from over inland Africa to well offshore
the coast of Africa, and has overtaken some of the dry air earlier
noted north and west of the wave. The wave is in a region of
favorable wind shear, and middle to upper level diffluence that
support scattered to isolated heavy showers from 06N to 16N E of
22W.

A tropical wave is in the central Atlc with axis extending from
16N31W to 06N33W, moving W at 5 kt within the last 24 hours.
Satellite enhanced imagery continue to show Saharan dry air and
dust intrusion to the wave environment. CIRA LPW imagery confirm
the intrusion of the dry air from the surface to 850 mb. The
wave is in a region of neutral to favorable wind shear, and
middle to upper level diffluence that support isolated showers
from 07N to 15N between 30W and 35W.

A tropical wave is in the E Caribbean with axis extending from
southern Puerto Rico near 18N66W to inland Venezuela near 07N67W.
A very moist environment is associated with this wave S of 16N
according to CIRA LPW imagery while neutral to favorable wind
shear is in this same region. These two factors support scattered
to isolated showers from 13N to 16N between 63W and 72W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough axis extends from the west coast of Africa
near 12N16W to 10N22W to 09N30W to 08N36W. The Intertropical
Convergence Zone extends from 09N36W to 05N50W. Convection
observed near the Monsoon Trough and ITCZ is mainly related to
tropical waves. Refer to the section above for details. Otherwise,
numerous heavy showers and isolated tstms are from 06N to 11N
between 20W and 31W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1021 mb surface high is centered near 28N87W, and is situated
on the SW extension of the Atlantic high that reaches to the
Gulf. The ridge extends westward from the 1021 mb high to Texas
adjacent waters N of 25N. This feature continues to dominate the
flow pattern throughout the basin, thus providing light to gentle
variable winds in the northern half of the Gulf. A surface trough
is in the SW basin along 22N93W to 16N94W, which is supporting
scattered to isolated showers in the Bay of Campeche. Light to
gentle variable winds are in the vicinity of the trough while
easterlies of the same magnitude are in the SE portion of the
basin. Little change is expected in the current synoptic pattern
through Tuesday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The passage of a tropical wave and an upper level diffluent
pattern over northern Central America continue to support isolated
showers and tstms over the NW Caribbean. A broad upper level low
over Cuba supports the continuation of heavy showers and tstms in
the southern and eastern portion of the Island as well as adjacent
waters. Upper level divergence between the low over Cuba and a
broad upper ridge centered in the E Caribbean continue to support
scattered heavy showers and tstms over northern and central Haiti
and isolated showers over the NW Dominican Republic. In the SW
basin, numerous heavy showers and tstms are over Panama and
coastal waters associated with the EPAC monsoon trough. Otherwise,
a tropical wave is moving over the eastern portion of the basin
supporting showers. See the tropical waves section above for
further details. Aside from the areas discussed above, generally
fair weather prevails elsewhere. The tropical wave is forecast to
move across the rest of the eastern Caribbean through early
Monday, then the central Caribbean during the remainder of Monday
and through Tuesday.

...HISPANIOLA...

Upper level divergence between a broad upper level low over Cuba
and a broad upper ridge centered in the E Caribbean continue to
support scattered heavy showers and tstms over northern and
central Haiti, and isolated showers over the NW Dominican
Republic. The atmospheric environment is forecast to become more
moist and unstable on Monday as a tropical wave currently over the
eastern Caribbean approaches the island. Expect increasing shower
and thunderstorms during Monday and through Tuesday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Two tropical waves are analyzed over the basin. Refer to the
Tropical Waves section above for details. A large surface trough
over the central Atlantic is analyzed from near 29N46W to 11N48W moving
steadily westward around 10 kt. The trough is surrounded by a dry
and stable air mass. Only isolated showers are possible in the
vicinity of this surface feature. A broad upper level low
centered over Cuba support scattered to isolated showers and
tstms over the Great Bahama Bank and across the southern-central
Bahamas. The remainder of the basin remains under the influence
of a broad surface ridge, anchored by a 1029 mb high centered
just northeast of the Azores. This synoptic pattern will change
little through Tuesday.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Ramos
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