[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 011746
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
146 PM EDT Sat Jul 1 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Meteo-France Gale Warning...

Gale-force N to NE winds will continue today over the areas of
AGADIR. These conditions will weaken by 02/1200 UTC. For more
details, please refer to the METEO- FRANCE High Seas Forecast
listed on the website: WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-
MARINE/BULLETIN/ GRANDLARGE/METAREA2.

...Caribbean Gale Warning...

A stronger pressure gradient over the south central Caribbean is
supporting strong to near-gale force winds with frequent gale-
force gusts from 11.5N to 13.5N between 73W and 77W. These
conditions will continue for the next 24 hours. For more details,
please refer to the High Seas Forecast product under AWIPS/WMO
headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave has an axis extending just off the coast of west
Africa from 14N18W to 04N15W, moving west around 10 kt. TPW
satellite imagery shows this wave is embedded in an area of deep
layer moisture. Initial model 700 mb wind fields indicate a well
defined trough coincides with this wave. Scattered moderate and
isolated strong convection is affecting the area from 06N to 13N
between 14W and 20W.

A tropical wave over the east Atlantic has an axis extending from
13N27W to 05N31W, moving west around 10 kt. The wave is in a
moderate moist environment with patches of dry air according to
TPW satellite imagery. Satellite enhanced imagery show Saharan
dry air and dust intrusion in the wave environment. Despite this,
moderate convection is observed from 05N to 12N between 30W and
34W.

A tropical wave over the tropical Atlantic just to the east of the
Lesser Antilles has an axis extending from 14N58W to 05N60W,
moving west around 20 kt. The wave is also embedded in a moist
environment. Satellite imagery also shows the presence of Saharan
dry air to the east and west of the wave. This environmental setup
suggests that convection associated with this wave will be
capable of producing strong wind gusts. Satellite derived wind
data indicate fresh winds in the vicinity of this wave between 50W
and 60W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is
observed from 11N to 14N between 55W and 59W.

A tropical wave over the west Caribbean with axis extending from
18N81W to 07N84W, moving west around 15 kt. TPW satellite imagery
shows abundant moisture associated with this wave which supports
scattered moderate and isolated strong convection from 09N to 18N
between 83W and 87W. Scatterometer data depicts a region of fresh
to strong winds in association to this wave affecting the waters
between 73W-83W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends from the west coast of Africa near
19N16W to 14N18W to 11N22W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone
extends from 09N31W to 06N47W. Aside from the convection
associated with the tropical waves, scattered moderate and isolated
strong convection is observed from 05N to 08N between 21W and 26W
and also from 04N to 07N between 34W and 37W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

Surface ridging prevails across the basin, anchored by a 1019 mb
high centered near 28N86W. Satellite-derived wind data depicts
gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds over the NE Gulf and
moderate to fresh winds over the SW Gulf. A weak surface trough
cuts across the NE corner of the Gulf from 26N83W to 29N83W.
Little change in the current synoptic pattern is expected during
the next two days.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The primary player over the basin continues to be a tropical wave
currently entering central America from the far western
Caribbean. See the Tropical Waves section for further details. A
strong pressure gradient between a high pressure ridge extending W
across the Atlantic along 30N and lower pressures associated with
the wave and the monsoon trough extending eastward over Colombia
from the eastern Pacific support fresh to strong winds from 11N to
17N between 67W and 79W. These winds are forecast to continue
during the next couple of days. Frequent gusts to gale force along
the coast of Colombia and the Gulf of Venezuela will continue
until 12Z Sunday, then these winds will abate to near gale force
as the high pressure ridge to the north weakens slightly. Please
refer to the Special Features section above for details regarding
this event.

...HISPANIOLA...

An upper-level trough extending southward from the SE Bahamas
through the Windward Passage trough will interact with abundant
moisture pooling to the SE over the island to trigger daytime
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms primarily over the
higher terrain on the island through Sunday.


ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Three tropical waves were analyzed over the basin. Refer to the
Tropical Waves section above for details. A surface trough over
the central Atlantic curving from 14N41W to 20N44W to 26N42W and
another smaller trough extending from 25N65W to 28N64W possess no
significant convection. The remainder of the basin remains under
the influence of a broad surface ridge, anchored by a 1034 mb
high centered just northeast of the Azores near 41N24W. Generally
moderate trades will continue around the southern periphery of
this high over the Atlantic from 10N and 25N between 30W and 50W
through the next 24-48 hours.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
McElroy
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