[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 252254
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
554 PM EST Wed Jan 25 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2230 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A 986 mb area of low pressure analyzed offshore of Nova Scotia
Canada centered near 43N62W extends a cold front into the
discussion area near 32N53W. The front continues S-SW to 25N56W
into the NE Caribbean Sea near Saint Kitts. Near gale to gale
force S-SW winds are occurring immediately east of the cold front
across portions of the central Atlc. In addition...near gale to
gale force N-NW winds are occurring W of the front in an area N of
28N between 57W-65W. See latest NWS High Seas Forecast under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

A cold front extends from Galveston Bay S-SW to near Brownsville
Texas and inland across eastern Mexico to 23N99W. The front is
forecast to move southeastward across the Gulf waters through
Thursday night. As high pressure builds behind the front across
the western Gulf...near gale to gale force N-NW winds are expected
briefly in an area generally S of 21N W of 96W. See latest NWS
High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC
for more details.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from the African
coast near 06N10W to 02N27W to 01N40W to the Equator near 45W.
Widely scattered moderate convection is S of 07N between 19W-51W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
Middle to upper level southwesterly flow aloft prevails over the
Gulf basin this evening between a mid-level ridge anchored over
the NW Caribbean Sea and an approaching middle to upper level
trough noted on water vapor imagery over western Texas and New
Mexico. The troughing supports a cold front analyzed from
Galveston Bay S-SW to Brownsville Texas then across interior
eastern Mexico to 23N99W. Isolated showers are occurring within 75
nm either side of the front. Otherwise...the remainder of the
basin is under the influence of the western periphery of a ridge
anchored by a 1019 mb high centered across the central Bahamas.
Mostly gentle to moderate southerly winds are occurring this
evening which are expected to shift northerly as the cold front
moves SE through Friday. High pressure will build in behind the
front and settle across the lower Mississippi River valley region
on Saturday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
Primarily W-NW flow aloft prevails W of an upper level trough axis
along 68W...while W-SW upper level flow is noted E of 68W...both
within dry air and strong subsidence over the basin. However...the
troughing remains an extension of a central Atlc middle to upper
level trough that supports a cold front analyzed across the
central Atlc into the NE Caribbean near Saint Kitts. The front
extends to 17N65W then becomes a surface trough to 14N70W. Widely
scattered showers are occurring in association with the
boundaries generally within 75 nm E of the cold front and across
an area from 13N-16N between 62W-70W focused in the vicinity of
the surface trough. The remainder of the basin is under the
influence of a surface ridge anchored by a 1019 mb high centered
across the central Bahamas. Moderate to occasion fresh trades are
expected through the overnight hours into Thursday as the high to
the N shifts eastward. Slightly strong trades...fresh to strong
are expected within close proximity to the coast of Colombia.

...HISPANIOLA...
Mostly fair conditions and clear skies prevailthis evening as
northerly flow aloft continues to provide an overall stable
environment over the region. A ridge anchored by a 1019 mb high
centered across the central Bahamas will continue to slide
eastward with little change expected through Thursday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
The Special Features low pressure and associated cold front
continues to produce the most impact across the Atlc this
evening. To the W of the front...a 1019 mb high centered across
the central Bahamas continues to influence much of the SW North
Atlc region this evening with mostly fair conditions and clear
skies. Generally only N of 26N E of 66W to the front are NW to W
winds reaching fresh to strong levels. Farther east...the
remainder of the eastern Atlc is under the influence of a
weak cold front analyzed from 32N22W to 30N30W to 29N38W which
then becomes stationary to 32N43W. Isolated showers are possible N
of 27N between 13W-40W. The front is expected to continue
weakening during the next 24 to 36 hours due to the lack of ample
middle to upper level support.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
HUFFMAN

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