[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 160559
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1259 AM EST Mon Jan 16 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...THE MONSOON TROUGH/THE ITCZ...

The Monsoon Trough passes through Liberia near 06N10W to 05N14W.
The ITCZ continues from 05N14W to 02N29W and 01N35W. Convective
precipitation: Widely scattered moderate to strong from 07N
southward between 11W and 33W. Scattered strong from 02N southward
between 01W and 07W. Numerous strong from 02N southward between
47W and 51W in NE Brazil.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

An NE-to-SW oriented upper level ridge passes through the NE
corner of the Gulf of Mexico into the SW corner of the area.
A deep-layer trough is moving through the areas of West Texas and
NE New Mexico, and the Oklahoma Panhandle. The deep-layer trough
is supporting a developing cyclone and frontal boundary that are
in West Texas and northern Mexico.

A surface ridge passes through NE Florida, toward the SW corner
of the Gulf of Mexico.

...LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL
PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N
NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

LIFR: none.

IFR: none.

MVFR: KHHV, KVAF, KEMK, KGHB, and KEIR.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS: MVFR in parts of the Corpus Christi metropolitan area and
Rockport, in Port Lavaca, in Bay City. light rain in Angleton/
Lake Jackson. MVFR from Sugar Land with light rain, to
Huntsville, and eastward to Beaumont-Port Arthur and Jasper.

LOUISIANA: MVFR in parts of the Lake Charles metropolitan area.
MVFR in Boothville. IFR on the northern side of Lake
Pontchartrain, and LIFR/IFR on the southern side of the lake.
MISSISSIPPI: IFR in McComb. MVFR at the Stennis Airport.
ALABAMA: LIFR in parts of the Mobile metropolitan area. FLORIDA:
VFR.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

Upper level SW wind flow curves anticyclonically, from Nicaragua
eastward, into the Caribbean Sea, from 15N southward. High level
clouds cover the Caribbean Sea from 16N southward. Other high
level clouds are moving into the NE corner of the Caribbean Sea,
from the Atlantic Ocean, with the NE wind flow from 350 mb to 800
mb.

NE wind flow, from 350 mb to 800 mb, covers the Caribbean Sea
from 14N northward from 72W eastward.

Middle level-to-upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the area
that is from 16N northward from 70W westward. A cyclonic
circulation center is near 19N80W.

NE wind flow, from 600 mb to 800 mb, is from 18N southward from
70W westward.

Comparatively drier air in subsidence, that is apparent in water
vapor imagery, spans the Caribbean Sea.

24-HOUR rainfall amounts in inches for the period ending at
16/0000 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...0.31 in Curacao,
and 0.15 in Guadeloupe.

...HISPANIOLA...

The wind flow from 350 mb to 800 mb is from the NE to E,
across Hispaniola. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is
apparent in water vapor imagery, across the entire area.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...for Port-au-Prince in Haiti: VFR. for the
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Barahona: VFR. few cumulonimbus clouds. Santo
Domingo/La Romana/Punta Cana: VFR. Santiago: VFR. few cumulonimbus
clouds. Puerto Plata: VFR..

The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 MB shows that SW wind flow will
move across the area at the start of the 48-hour forecast period.
The trough will move into the Windward Passage after 6 to 12
hours, followed by nothing but NW wind flow for the rest of the
time. The GFS MODEL forecast for 500 MB shows that NE wind flow,
and then N wind flow, will move across the area. An east-to-west
oriented trough will be to the east of Hispaniola. A ridge will be
to the NW and W of Hispaniola. The GFS MODEL forecast for 700 mb
shows that NE wind flow will move across Hispaniola, with a
Florida/Bahamas-to-Hispaniola ridge.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level trough passes through 32N32W 27N34W 21N36W 19N44W
and 18N57W. A developing cold front passes through 32N40W to
27N33W and 22N36W. A surface trough is along 48W/49W from 03N to
14N. Convective precipitation: widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong from 20N northward between 23W and 36W.
Rainshowers are possible also from 10N to 20N between the Cabo
Verde Islands to 57W.

A shallow cold front passes through 32N63W, about 75 nm to the
east of Bermuda, to 30N72W, beyond 32N78W.  is trailing the 1010
mb low pressure center and trough, passing through 32N50W to
31N56W, beyond 32N61W. Multilayered clouds and possible
rainshowers are from 29N northward from 56W westward.

A surface ridge is to the east of the developing cold front,
along 08N42W 18N35W 28N25W beyond 32N21W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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