[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 140545
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1244 AM EST Sat Jan 14 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Caribbean Sea Gale Warning...

The current situation consists of: NE gale-force winds, and sea
heights ranging from 09 feet to 12 feet, from 09.5N to 12.5N
between 73.5W and 77W. Please read the HIGH SEAS FORECAST...
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...and the OFFSHORE FORECAST...
MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...for more details.

...THE MONSOON TROUGH/THE ITCZ...

The Monsoon Trough passes through the Prime Meridian near 04N, to
03N13W. The ITCZ continues from 03N13W to 01N20W 02N29W, crossing
the equator along 35W, to 01S41W. Convective precipitation:
scattered moderate to strong within 60 nm on either side of 05N09W
03N15W, and from 04N southward between 15W and 22W. Isolated
moderate elsewhere from 10N southward between Africa and 60W,
mostly from 04N southward from 22W westward.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

The eastern boundary of upper level anticyclonic wind flow is
moving from Mexico and Texas to the coastal waters, from 24N
northward from 93W westward. Anticyclonic wind flow covers the
area, in the range from 350 mb to 800 mb. Comparatively drier air
in subsidence is apparent in water vapor imagery, across the Gulf
of Mexico.

Upper level SW wind flow is moving from the coastal waters of the
northern part of the Yucatan Peninsula, into the Yucatan Channel.

A surface ridge passes through Mississippi into the SW corner of
the Gulf of Mexico.

...LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL
PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N
NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

LIFR: KVBS.

IFR: KDLP.

MVFR: KXIH and KVAF.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS: MVFR in the Lower Rio Grande Valley. IFR/MVFR in the
middle Texas Gulf coast. LIFR in Victoria/Port Lavaca/Palacios
and in Angleton/Lake Jackson/Galveston. LIFR/IFR elsewhere from
the Houston metropolitan area to Beaumont/Port Arthur and Jasper,
and to Huntsville. LOUISIANA: LIFR in Boothville. MISSISSIPPI:
LIFR in Pascagoula. IFR in Biloxi. MVFR in Gulfport, and in parts
of the Hattiesburg metropolitan area. ALABAMA: IFR in Gulf Shores.
FLORIDA: MVFR at the NAS Pensacola. IFR in Crestview, and in the
SE part of the Panama City metropolitan area. MVFR in Brooksville
and in Punta Gorda.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

Broad middle level-to-upper level anticyclonic wind flow spans the
entire area.

NE wind flow, in the level that is from 600 mb to 800 mb, covers
the Caribbean Sea, under the middle level-to-upper level
anticyclonic wind flow.

Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor
imagery, from 16N60W 15N83W southward.

24-HOUR rainfall totals in inches for the period ending at
14/0000 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are 0.56 in
Curacao, 0.02 in Guadeloupe.

...HISPANIOLA...

Upper level anticyclonic wind flow is moving across Hispaniola.
The wind flow from 600 mb to 800 mb is from the NE-to-E.
Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor
imagery, across the entire area.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...for Port-au-Prince in Haiti: VFR. for the
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Barahona: VFR. Santo Domingo: VFR. nearby
rainshowers during the last few observations. La Romana: VFR.
Punta Cana: VFR. earlier brief rain near Punta Cana has ended.
Santiago: MVFR. ceiling at 1400 feet. Puerto Plata: MVFR. ceiling
at 1800 feet.

The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 MB shows that SW wind flow will
move across the area, with a trough to the west of Hispaniola.
The wind flow will become W at the end of the 48-hour forecast
period, as the trough becomes closer to the area. The GFS MODEL
forecast for 500 MB shows that cyclonic wind flow will move
across the area during day one, and that anticyclonic wind flow
will move across the area during day two. The GFS MODEL forecast
for 700 mb shows that NE wind flow will move across Hispaniola,
with a Florida-to-central Atlantic Ocean ridge.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level trough passes through 32N45W to 26N48W 22N49W and
17N60W. A surface trough extends from a 1012 mb low pressure
center that is near 20N52W, to 18N53W and 15N56W. Convective
precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from
18N to 29N between 34W and 50W. Rainshowers are possible from 10N
to 20N between 40W and 50W.

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean,
the Caribbean Sea, and the Gulf of Mexico from 15N northward from
60W westward. A 1032 mb high pressure center is near 31N74W.

An eastern Atlantic Ocean surface ridge passes through 32N28W to
24N30W 17N33W and 07N32W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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