[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 131157
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
657 AM EST Fri Jan 13 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Caribbean Sea Gale Warning...

NE gale-force winds, and sea heights ranging from 12 feet to 15
feet, from 10N to 13N between 73W and 77W. Please read the HIGH
SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...and the OFFSHORE
FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...for more details.

Please refer to the METEO-FRANCE High Seas Forecast, on the
website: WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-MARINE/BULLETIN/
GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. The OUTLOOK, for the 24 hours that follow the
forecast that is valid until 14/1200 UTC, consists of: the
persistence or threat of NE near gale or gale in: AGADIR, TARFAYA,
and CANARIAS.

...THE MONSOON TROUGH/THE ITCZ...

The Monsoon Trough passes through the Prime Meridian near 05N,
to 03N19W and 02N26W. The ITCZ continues from 02N26W to 02N43W.
Convective precipitation: scattered moderate strong from 04N to
07N between 10W and 16W off the coasts of Sierra Leone and Liberia,
and from 01N to 02N between 13W and 15W. Widely scattered moderate
to isolated strong from 06N southward between 37W and 52W in parts
of Brazil.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

Anticyclonic wind flow covers the area, in the range from 350 mb
to 800 mb. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in
water vapor imagery, across the Gulf of Mexico.

Upper level SW wind flow is moving from the SW corner of the Gulf
of Mexico and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico into the NW corner
of the Caribbean Sea.

A surface ridge passes through SW Georgia into E Texas. Another
ridge extends from the NE corner of the Gulf of Mexico to the
Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico.

...LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL
PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N
NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

LIFR: KXIH and KVBS.

IFR: none.

MVFR: KVAF, KEHC, and KEIR.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS: IFR in parts of the middle Texas Gulf coast. LIFR in
Victoria/Galveston/Beaumont-Port Arthur. MVFR in Port Lavaca.
IFR/LIFR and light rain from the Houston metropolitan area to
Conroe. LOUISIANA: LIFR from Baton Rouge-to-Hammond southward and
in Boothville, from Galliano westward. LIFR around Lake
Pontchartrain. MVFR in Port Fourchon. MISSISSIPPI: LIFR from
Natchez-to-Hattiesburg southward. ALABAMA: LIFR from Dothan-to-
Evergreen southward. FLORIDA: LIFR and light rain in the Pensacola
metropolitan area. LIFR/IFR in parts of the Panama City
metropolitan area. IFR in Perry. MVFR at the Tampa Executive
Airport. MVFR in parts of the Ft.Myers metropolitan area. light
rain in Marathon Key and in parts of the Key West metropolitan
area.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

Upper level SW wind flow is curving anticyclonically through the
Caribbean Sea, along a line from Nicaragua to the Windward Passage
eastward. Upper level SW wind flow also is moving from the SW
corner of the Gulf of Mexico and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico
into the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea.

NE-to-E wind flow, in the level that is from 600 mb to 800 mb,
covers the Caribbean Sea from 15N southward.

Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor
imagery, from 17N southward between the eastern Caribbean Sea
islands and 83W, and in the NW corner of the area.

A shear line continues from 13N60W, to 12N65W 12N70W.
Convective precipitation: isolated moderate from 15N southward.

24-HOUR rainfall totals in inches for the period ending at
13/0000 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are 0.77 in
Curacao, 0.35 in Guadeloupe.

...HISPANIOLA...

Upper level anticyclonic wind flow is moving across Hispaniola.
The wind flow from 600 mb to 800 mb is from the NE-to-E.
Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor
imagery, across the entire area.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...for Port-au-Prince in Haiti: VFR. for the
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Santo Domingo: MVFR. ceiling at 1600 feet. La
Romana: VFR. Punta Cana: VFR. earlier brief rain in Punta Cana
has ended. Santiago: VFR. Puerto Plata: MVFR. ceiling at 1600
feet. earlier light rain has ended.

The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 MB shows that SW wind flow will
move across the area, with a trough. The GFS MODEL forecast for
500 MB shows that NE wind flow will move across the area, in the
middle of a trough to the east and a ridge to the west.
Anticyclonic wind flow will reach Hispaniola at the end of the
48-hour forecast period. The GFS MODEL forecast for 700 mb shows
that NE wind flow will move across Hispaniola, with a Florida-to-
central Atlantic Ocean ridge.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 25N50W.
Cyclonic wind flow is within: 320 nm N/120 nm E/500 nm S/700 nm
W, of the center. The upper level cyclonic wind flow supports a
surface trough, 26N54W to a 1011 mb low pressure center 23N52W.
cold front 23N52W 20N50W 16N54W 13N60W. A second surface trough
17N49W 11N52W. Convective precipitation: widely scattered moderate
to isolated strong from 19N to 30N between 32W and 60W.

A surface ridge extends from a 1032 mb high pressure center that
is near 34N69W, beyond Georgia. Broad surface anticyclonic wind
flow covers the eastern Atlantic Ocean from 20N northward from
40W eastward.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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