[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 100605
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
105 AM EST TUE JAN 10 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Atlantic Ocean Gale Warning...

A cold front is along 31N54W 18N68W. NE Gale-force winds, and sea
heights ranging from 8 feet to 13 feet, are present to the S of
22N between the cold front and 76W.

The 18-hour forecast consists of the cold front from 31N54W to
24N57W to 18N65W. Expect NE Gale-force winds and sea heights
ranging from 12 feet to 16 feet to the N of 28N to the W of the
front.

...Caribbean Sea Gale Warning...

A stationary front is along 18N68W 15N76W 11N83W. NE Gale-force
winds, and sea heights ranging from 8 feet to 12 feet, to the N
of 14N between 73W and 78W.

Please read the HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...and
the OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...for more details.

Please refer to the METEO-FRANCE High Seas Forecast, that is
listed under the following links: MARINE...BULLETINS
EXPERTISES...GRAND LARGE...METAREA II...or on the website:
WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-MARINE/BULLETIN/
GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. Gale-force winds are forecast, later, for
the area that is called IRVING. The OUTLOOK, for the 24 hours that
follow the forecast that is valid until 11/0000 UTC, consists of:
the threat of a gale on Wednesday afternoon in AGADIR.

...THE MONSOON TROUGH/THE ITCZ...

The Monsoon Trough passes through coastal sections of southern Liberia
near 03N11W. The ITCZ continues from 03N11W to the equator along
20W, to 01N32W, to the equator along 40W, and the equator along 46W.
Convective precipitation: isolated moderate to the south of 08N13W
08N30W 09N47W 05N53W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 25N94W. It is
surrounded by comparatively drier air in subsidence, in water
vapor imagery. Middle level-to-upper level S and SE wind flow is
moving from the Yucatan Peninsula to the area of the 25N94W
cyclonic circulation center. Upper level NW wind flow covers the
rest of the Gulf of Mexico that is to the NE of the area of the
25N94W cyclonic circulation center.

A surface trough extends from the deep south of Texas to 23N96W
and 18N95W, in the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico. Broken low
level clouds and possible rainshowers are from 26N southward from
94W westward.

A surface ridge passes through eastern Georgia, to the Florida
Panhandle, into the west central Gulf of Mexico, to 24N94W.

...LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL
PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N
NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

LIFR: none.

IFR: none.

MVFR: none.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS: MVFR in Victoria and Port Lavaca. from LOUISIANA to
FLORIDA: VFR.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level trough cuts through the Caribbean Sea. The trough
extends from the Atlantic Ocean, through 21N69W, to 15N78W.
Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor
imagery, to the N and NW of the line that passes through 20N69W
16N76W 14N83W. Upper level anticyclonic wind flow is to the east
of the trough. Middle level anticyclonic wind flow is to the W and
NW of the trough, across the area of the drier air in subsidence.
A stationary front is along 20N66W in the Atlantic Ocean, through
the Mona Passage, to 17N73W, and 12N84W near the coast of
Nicaragua. Convective precipitation: isolated moderate within 60
nm on either side of the stationary front.

24-HOUR rainfall totals in inches for the period ending at
09/0000 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are 0.04 in
Curacao, and 0.01 in Guadeloupe.

...HISPANIOLA...

Upper level NW wind flow is moving across the area. Middle level
to upper level NE wind flow, from 350 mb to 500 mb, covers the
area that still has not been reached by the upper level trough.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...for Port-au-Prince in Haiti: VFR. for the
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Barahona: MVFR. ceiling at 1800 feet. Santo
Domingo/La Romana: VFR/no ceiling. Punta Cana: MVFR. ceiling at
1600 feet. Santiago and Puerto Plata: VFR. earlier rain has ended
for the moment in each city.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A deep layer trough is moving through 32N68W to 21N69W. The
trough is supporting a cold front that passes through 32N54W to
27N60W and 20N66W. Convective precipitation: isolated to widely
scattered moderate within 60 nm to 90 nm on either side of the
line that passes through 32N57W to 25N62W to 20N67W.

An upper level trough passes through 32N35W, to an upper level
cyclonic circulation center that is near 24N38W, to 15N43W, to
05N47W. A surface trough extends from 1014 mb low pressure center
that is near 26N36W to 22N38W and 18N41W. Convective precipitation:
widely scattered to scattered moderate and isolated strong from
21N northward between 29W and 43W. Broken to overcast multilayered
clouds and possible rainshowers are to the east of 27N26W 10N45W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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