[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 040545
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1245 AM EST WED JAN 4 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0530 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends across Africa reaching the Atlantic
waters near 05N12W. The ITCZ begins from that point to 01N25W
to the northeast coast of Brazil near 01S45W. No significant
convection is associated any of these boundaries.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A broad upper-level ridge extends across the basin. At the surface,
a dissipating frontal system extends across the Gulf analyzed as a
stationary front from 24N97W to 26N90W then as a cold front from
that point to 30N83W. A stronger cold front is entering the
northwest portion of the basin extending from 28N97W to 30N93W.
Scatterometer data depicts gentle to moderate westerly winds north
of 27N, while light to gentle winds prevail south of 27N. Expect
during the next 24 hours for the cold front over the northwest
Gulf to continue moving southeast enhancing winds/seas. The
weakening frontal boundary will dissipate. A surface ridge will
build in the wake of the cold front.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Water vapor imagery shows strong subsidence over the entire
Caribbean basin. At the surface, the pressure gradient generated
by the interaction of a ridge north of the Caribbean and lower
pressures prevailing north of South America is supporting moderate
to fresh easterly winds over the central sections of the basin.
Light to moderate trades prevail elsewhere. Little change in the
overall pattern is expected over the next 24 hours.

HISPANIOLA...

Water vapor imagery depicts a shortwave trough just northwest of
Haiti. Cloudiness and isolated showers are observed over the
northern portion of the island. The trough is expected to move
east away from the island. A drying trend will prevail after that.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends north of 30N and west of 70W. Scattered
moderate convection prevails in the vicinity of the front
affecting the western Atlantic mainly north of 29N and west of
76W. A surface ridge extends along 56W. To the east, another
front extends across the central Atlantic analyzed from 29N54W to
28N40W to 31N32W. Isolated showers are observed along the front. A
surface trough extends from 24N34W to 31N23W with no significant
convection. Expect for the fronts to continue moving east during
the next 24 hours with convection mainly along the front in the
west Atlantic.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
ERA
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