[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 031718
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1218 PM EST TUE JAN 3 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America,
and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N.
The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather
observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends across southwest Africa into the east
Tropical Atlantic near 06N10W to 05N14W where the ITCZ begins and
continues to 06N30W to 00N40W. Scattered moderate convection is
located from 03N-08N between 24W-40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

Broad ridging aloft covers the entire Gulf of Mexico with very
strong flow (near 100 knots) over the northeast part. A stationary
front extends from the western Florida panhandle to 29N90W to
22N97W. The front is easily identified on visible satellite
imagery and is forecast to move slowly east over the next 24
hours.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Water vapor imagery shows strong subsidence in mostly moderate to
strong northwesterly flow over the entire Caribbean and supports
fair weather over the area. The pressure gradient generated by
the interaction of a ridge north of the Caribbean and lower
pressures prevailing north of South America is supporting fresh to
strong easterly winds over the central sections of the basin.

HISPANIOLA...

Fair weather prevails across the island with little change
expected over the next 24 to 48 hours.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A broad middle/upper level trough covers the central and east
central Atlantic north of 20N between 30W and 60W. A strong jet
originates near 5N60W to 10N50W to 21N30W to the African coast at
26N with satellite derived winds indicating speeds on 100 to 120
knots. Broad ridging aloft covers the eastern Atlantic. A surface
ridge prevails across the western Atlantic. A frontal system was
analyzed as a stationary front from 21N59W to 24N40W then as a
cold front from that point to 26N30W to beyond 31N20W. Isolated
showers are observed along the stationary front. Another cold
front extends through 31N40W to 29N50W to 30N60W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

CAB
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