[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 011713
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1213 PM EST SUN JAN 1 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Caribbean Gale Warning...

The nocturnal pressure gradient will tighten tonight and again
Monday night between the surface ridge over the west Atlantic and
the lower pressure over South America to support gale force winds
across the south- central Caribbean mainly from 11N-13N between
73W-76W. Please see the High Seas Forecast product under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends across southwest Africa into the east
Tropical Atlantic near 10N14W to 06N22W where the ITCZ begins and
continues along 04N30W to 04N40W to 01N50W. Scattered moderate
convection is from 02N to 09N between 26W and 53W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A high pressure ridge axis extends from western Atlantic high
pressure across the Florida peninsula to the west-central Gulf of
Mexico. This supports mainly fresh to strong southeast to south
winds across the Gulf basin. An upper trough inland over the
central United States is supporting a cold front along the Texas
coast with a pair of surface low pressures inland over Texas and
Mississippi. These features are supporting scattered showers and
thunderstorms within 150 nm of the Texas and Louisiana coasts.
A thermal surface trough along the Mexico Coast near Vera Cruz
supports patchy fog and scattered showers. Over the next 24 hours
the cold front along the Texas coast will dissipate, while fresh
to strong return flow persists across the majority of the Gulf
basin.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Strong western Atlantic high pressure is supporting fresh to
strong trades across the majority of the central and eastern
Caribbean, with moderate to fresh trades over the northwestern
Caribbean. A weak surface trough is over the north central
Caribbean between Jamaica and Windward Passage supporting isolated
showers. Tonight and again Monday night winds will pulse to gale-
force along the northern coast of Colombia as the nocturnal
pressure gradient tightens between lower pressures over Colombia
and the high pressure to the north. Please see the special
features section for more details.

HISPANIOLA...

Scattered showers will continue to occur over the windward
locations of the island in the trade wind flow through at least
Monday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper trough over the central Atlantic supports a cold front
that extends into our area of discussion near 31N43W to 27N49W
then is stationary to 23N63W to 23N73W. Scattered showers are
within 120 nm of either side of this front. Otherwise, a 1031 mb
high centered near 34N57W dominates the remainder of the central
and western Atlantic. Farther east, a weakening cold front extends
from 31N24W to 28N31W and is then dissipating stationary to
29N39W. Scattered showers are within 120 nm south of the front.
Over the next 24 hours the stationary front over the central and
western Atlantic will dissipate as the high north of the region
builds southward.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Latto
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