[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 010605
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
105 AM EST SUN JAN 1 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Caribbean Sea Gale Warning...

Expect NE gale-force winds and sea heights ranging from 10 feet to
13 feet from 11N to 13N between 73W and 76W. Please read the HIGH
SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...and the OFFSHORE
FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...for more details.

...THE MONSOON TROUGH/THE ITCZ...

The Monsoon Trough passes through coastal sections of Sierra Leone
near 08N13W to 08N18W. The ITCZ continues from 08N18W to 02N40W,
and to the equator along 49W. Convective precipitation: scattered
strong from 02N to 05N between 30W and 38W. scattered to numerous
strong from 03N to 05N between 44W and 46W. isolated moderate to
elsewhere from 10N southward from 60W eastward, mostly from 07N
southward from 50W eastward.

One area of high level clouds covers the Atlantic Ocean from 17N
southward from 60W eastward, and those clouds are moving eastward.
Other high level clouds are within 210 nm on either side of the
line 20N16W 16N28W 10N43W, and those clouds are moving
northeastward.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

Upper level SW wind flow spans the entire Gulf of Mexico.
High level moisture is within 60 nm from 90W eastward, and
within 180 nm of the coast between 91W and 97W. A surface trough
is within 60 nm of the coast of Louisiana and Texas between 91W
and 97W.

Rainshowers are possible in the SE corner of the area, from 25N
southward from 90W eastward, in scattered-to-broken low clouds.

Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Gulf of Mexico. A ridge
extends from the Atlantic Ocean toward the SW corner of the area.

...LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL
PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N
NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

LIFR: none.

IFR: KGRY.

MVFR: KMZG, KBBF, KBQX, KVBS, KVAF, KGUL, KHQI, KVQT, KGHB,
KEIR, KSPR, KMIS, and KDLP.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS: MVFR at the NAS in Corpus Christi, and in Rockport and Port
Lavaca. IFR in Victoria. MVFR in Palacios, Bay City, and Angleton/
Lake Jackson. LIFR in Beaumont/Port Arthur. IFR in Jasper. MVFR in
the Houston metropolitan area. IFR in Conroe. LIFR in Huntsville.
LOUISIANA: MVFR in the southern sections. IFR in Patterson. Rain
and thunder in Lafayette. Rain is being reported around Lake
Pontchartrain; IFR/MVFR. Rain and earlier thunder in Galliano.
MVFR in SE corner. MISSISSIPPI: LIFR and rain in McComb and in
the Hattiesburg metropolitan area. MVFR in Natchez. LIFR/IFR with
MVFR elsewhere in the southernmost/coastal plains. Heavy rain in
Gulfport and Biloxi. ALABAMA: Heavy rain in parts of the Mobile
metropolitan area, and in Gulf Shores. Rain from Dothan to
Evergreen, heavy at times in Evergreen. FLORIDA: Rain from
Pensacola to Milton, heavy at times in Pensacola. Light rain in
Crestview and Marianna. Drizzle in parts of the Panama City
metropolitan area.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

Middle level NE-to-E wind flow covers the area that is from 70W
eastward. Middle level SE wind flow covers the area that is from
15N northward from Jamaica westward. Middle level E-to-NE wind
flow is from 16N northward around Hispaniola.

Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Caribbean Sea from 70W
eastward. Upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the area that is
from 70W westward.

Scattered to broken low level clouds and possible rainshowers are
within 60 nm on either side of 11N63W 16N66W, and from 15N to 20N
between 63W and the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea.

The monsoon trough passes through 07N/08N between 80W and 83W, in
parts of Panama. Convective precipitation: isolated moderate from
11N southward from 80W westward.

24-HOUR rainfall totals in inches for the period ending at
01/0000 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are 0.09 in
Guadeloupe, and 0.04 in Curacao.

...HISPANIOLA...

Upper level NW wind flow is moving on top of middle level easterly
wind flow that is across Hispaniola. Comparatively drier air in
subsidence is apparent in water vapor imagery, across the entire
area. Convective precipitation: rainshowers are possible inland,
and in the coastal waters, in areas of scattered to broken low
level clouds.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...for Port-au-Prince in Haiti: VFR. for the
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Barahona: VFR. Santo Domingo/La Romana/Punta
Cana: VFR/no ceiling. Rain during the last few observations in
Punta Cana has ended for the moment. Santiago/Puerto Plata:
VFR/no ceiling.

The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 MB shows that a Colombia-to-
Nicaragua-to-Yucatan Peninsula ridge will bring NW wind flow
across the area during the next 48 hours. The GFS MODEL forecast
for 500 MB shows that an anticyclonic circulation center that will
move around Cuba will bring anticyclonic wind flow across the
area during the first 12 hours of the 48-hour forecast, followed
by mostly NE wind flow, with a bit more anticyclonic wind flow
right at the end of the 48-hour forecast period. The GFS MODEL
forecast for 700 mb shows that NE-to-E wind flow will move across
Hispaniola, during the next 48 hours, with an Atlantic Ocean
anticyclonic circulation center and a ridge.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A deep layer trough is moving through the central Atlantic Ocean.
The trough is supporting a cold front that passes through 32N49W
to 29N52W and 25N58W. The front becomes stationary from 25N58W to
23N68W to SE Cuba. Convective precipitation: isolated moderate
within 120 nm on either side of the line that passes through
32N46W 27N52W 23N60W, and from 20N to 25N between 60W and 77W.

An upper level trough passes through 32N46W to 25N45W to 15N47W.
High level clouds cover the Atlantic Ocean from 22N to 32N
between 35W and 45W. A cold front passes through 32N27W to 30N30W
and 29N34W. The cold front is dissipating from 29N34W to 29N38W
and 31N40W. An upper level trough is along 28N39W to 15N42W and
12N50W. The cold front is marked by a cloud boundary, with
possible rainshowers along it and behind it, to the north of the
line that passes through 32N23W 28N30W 27N37W 28N42W 30N43W. High
level clouds are from 23N to 29N between 27W and 40W.

Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 14N
northward to two separate frontal boundaries between 30W and 54W.
A 1024 mb high pressure center is near 29N44W. Surface high
pressure also is to the N and NW of the cold front/stationary
front, from 25N northward between 53W and the SE U.S.A.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net