[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 280601
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
101 AM EST Tue Feb 28 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...CARIBBEAN SEA GALE WARNING...

Expect NE gale-force winds, and sea heights ranging from 9 feet
to 10 feet, in the coastal waters of Colombia, from 11N to 12.5N
between 73.5W and 76W. Please read the latest NWS High Seas
Forecast under the AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for
more details.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough passes through the coastal areas of the Ivory
Coast from 05N07W, to the Equator along 11W. The ITCZ continues
from the Equator along 11W, to 02S16W, to 02S25W, 04S29W, 04S36W,
into Brazil near 06S39W. Convective precipitation: widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong from 08N southward from 52W
eastward.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

Middle level-to-upper level SW wind flow is moving across the
Gulf of Mexico. The SW wind flow is part of the more overall
anticyclonic wind flow that covers the Gulf of Mexico, parts of
the Atlantic Ocean, and the Caribbean Sea. A stationary front
spans the area of Florida near 31N83W, through the Florida
Panhandle, beyond SE Louisiana, into NE Texas.

...LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL
PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N
NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

LIFR: KSPR and KIKT.

IFR: KMZG, KBBF, KBQX, KHHV, KVAF, KEMK, KHQI, KMIS, and KDLP.

MVFR: KGUL, KGBK, KEHC, KVQT, KGHB, KEIR, KMDG, and KVOA.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS: MVFR/IFR from Victoria southward. LIFR from Victoria to Bay
City. MVFR/IFR elsewhere. LOUISIANA: IFR mostly/LIFR in
Boothville. MISSISSIPPI: LIFR/IFR from Natchez-to-Hattiesburg
southward. ALABAMA: IFR between Florida and Mississippi. MVFR in
Evergreen. FLORIDA: IFR/MVFR from Panama City to the west and
northwest. MVFR elsewhere from Tallahassee westward. IFR at the
Tampa Executive Airport.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

Broad middle level-to-upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers
the Caribbean Sea from 14N northward. Middle level to upper level
NW wind flow covers the area from 14N southward from 75W eastward.

Middle level to upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the SW
corner of the area, from 06N to 13N between 79W in the Caribbean
Sea to 88W in the Eastern Pacific Ocean.

Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor
imagery elsewhere across the area.

Rainshowers are possible elsewhere across the Caribbean Sea, from
14N southward from 66W eastward, and elsewhere from 82W eastward.

The 24-hour rainfall amounts, for the period ending at 28/0000
UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION
TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are: 0.19 in Guadeloupe.

...HISPANIOLA...

NE wind flow from 250 mb to 800 mb is moving across the area.
Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor
imagery across Hispaniola.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...for Port-au-Prince in Haiti, at 27/2200
UTC, VFR. for the DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Barahona: VFR. Santo
Domingo/La Romana/Punta Cana: VFR. Santiago/Puerto Plato: VFR.

The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 MB shows that NW wind flow will
move across the area for the first 36 hours. A trough will move
across the area after 36 hours, bringing more N wind flow with the
front, for the rest of the 48-hour forecast period. The GFS MODEL
forecast for 500 MB shows that NE wind flow will move across the
area, either with a ridge cutting across Hispaniola, or with a
ridge to the north of Hispaniola, in the Atlantic Ocean. The GFS
MODEL forecast for 700 mb shows NE wind flow will be moving across
the area for the first 30 hours of the 48-hour forecast period.
E-to-SE wind flow will move across the area for the rest of the
forecast time.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The southernmost part of a cold front passes through 32N55W to
30N66W. A surface trough is along 33N49W 30N54W 27N61W. Middle
level to upper level westerly wind flow is moving on top of the
area of the cold front. Convective precipitation: rainshowers are
possible to the northwest of the line that passes through 32N46W,
25N60W, to 20N74W.

A surface ridge passes through 32N72W, across the NW Bahamas, NW
Cuba, toward the Gulf of Honduras.

An upper level trough extends from a 32N28W cyclonic circulation
center, to 22N37W and 20N53W. Broad middle level to upper level
anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean to the west and
northwest of the 32N28W-to-20N53W trough. A surface trough is
along 33N40W 30N41W 27N45W. Convective precipitation:
rainshowers are possible from 25N northward between 40W and 54W.

Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the area from 25N northward
between Africa and 40W. A 1028 mb high pressure center is near
36N30W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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