[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 271125
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
625 AM EST Mon Feb 27 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A strengthened pressure gradient is expected support gale-force
winds during the late night and early morning hours off the coast
of Colombia over the next several nights. Please see the latest
NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02
KNHC for more details.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 05N10W to
03N15W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone extends from 03N15W to
00N48W. Scattered moderate convection is observed within 100 nm
on either side of the ITCZ between 15W-45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

Water vapor imagery indicates mainly dry air aloft within
southwesterly flow over the basin. At the surface, ridging
remains in control across the basin and eastern CONUS as a 1025 mb
high is anchored near 35N77W. Mostly moderate to occasional fresh
easterly winds prevail within the southern periphery of the high
extending across the Gulf waters. The ridge is forecast to move
eastward across the mid-Atlantic waters through the next 24 hours
as southerly return flow persists across the Gulf until early
Wednesday. By that time, the next cold front is forecast to emerge
of the Texas and Louisiana coasts providing a new round of fresh
to occasional strong northeast winds in wake of the front. The
front will stall across central portion of the basin by late
Thursday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Upper-level ridging prevails over the Caribbean basin as water
vapor indicates mostly dry air within an overall subsident
environment. A surface trough was analyzed across the northwest
Caribbean from 21N84W to 18N86W. Isolated low-topped showers are
within 100 nm on either side of the boundary. The trough is forecast
to drift westward toward the Yucatan peninsula today. Farther
east, quick-moving isolated showers are possible through the
day mainly east of 75W. Aside from the Special Features near-
gale to gale-force winds expected off the coast of Colombia each
night starting tonight, moderate to fresh trades will persist
today and gradually increase to fresh to strong levels by Tuesday
as a high pressure anchors itself to the north of the area across
the southwest Atlantic. The strengthened pressure gradient across
the basin will remain in place through the week.

...HISPANIOLA...

Currently fair conditions and mostly clear skies prevail across
the island. Water vapor imagery also indicates very dry air and
overall strong subsidence over the region. Little change is
expected through the next 24 hours.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front enters the discussion area near 31N65W to 30N68W
then becomes a dissipating stationary front to 26N80W. No
significant convection is observed near these boundaries at this
time. A surface ridge is building in the wake of the fronts. To
the east, a surface trough extends from 29N64W to 25N72W with
isolated showers possible within 60 nm on either side of the
trough axis. The remainder of the basin is under the influence of
a surface ridge anchored by a 1029 mb high centered west of the
Azores near 37N32W. Within the southern periphery of the ridge, a
weak 1025 mb low is centered near 34N41W with a cold front
extending from the low to 31N41W then a stationary front extends
to 28N48W. No significant convection is observed at this time with
these features.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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