[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 192357
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
705 PM EST Sun Feb 19 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 06N10W to
04N15W. The ITCZ extends from 04N15W to 03S30W to the South
American Coast near 02S45W. Isolated moderate convection is from
03S-06N between 17W-42W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak cold front extends from S Florida near 27N80W to the SE
Gulf of Mexico near 27N83W. A dissipating cold front continues
to 28N88W. Radar imagery shows the front is mostly void of
precipitation. Winds N of the front are only 10 kt from the NE.
The W Gulf, W of 90W, has a tighter surface pressure gradient
thus winds are 10-15 kt from the SE. In the upper levels, an
upper level ridge is over the Gulf with axis along 87W. Upper
level moisture is over Texas and the W Gulf. Strong subsidence
is over the E Gulf. Expect over the next several hours for the
cold front over S Florida to move E into the Atlantic with
little effect. Expect in 24 hours for a cold front to be along
the coast of Texas with convection. Also expect an upper level
trough to be over Texas and the W Gulf supporting the cold
front.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The tail-end of a cold front is over the NE Caribbean from
19N60W to Puerto Rico to E Hispaniola near 18N70W. Scattered
showers are N of front to 21N. Elsewhere, scattered showers are
over E Venezuela, W Panama, Costa Rica, E Cuba, and Jamaica. 10-
25 kt tradewinds are over the Caribbean with strongest winds
along the coast of N Colombia, and over the NW Caribbean. In the
upper levels, an upper level high is over the SW Caribbean Sea
near 10N80W. Strong subsidence is over the entire Caribbean.
Expect over the next 24 hours for the front to linger over the N
Leeward Islands with showers. Also expect in 24 hours for a W
Atlantic front to move to N of Hispaniola with more convection.

...HISPANIOLA...

Scattered showers are now over Hispaniola. Expect showers to
persist for the next 24 hours.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1011 mb low is centered over the W Atlantic near 31N73W. A
cold front extends SW to S Florida near 27N80W. Scattered
showers are within 90 nm of the front. A prefrontal trough
extends from 28N73W to 26N78W. Scattered moderate convection is
within 60 nm of the trough. A 1022 mb high is centered over the
W Atlantic near 30N59W. A cold front is over the central
Atlantic from 31N41W to 23N50W to 19N60W. Scattered showers are
within 90 nm of the front. A 1035 mb high is centered N of the
Azores near 42N23W with a ridge axis extending S to the E
Atlantic near 23N30W. Of note in the upper levels, an upper
level trough is over the W Atlantic N of 24N W of 65W supporting
the W Atlantic front. Another upper level trough is over the
central Atlantic N of 20N between 35W-50W supporting the central
Atlantic front. Expect over the next 24 hours for both cold
fronts to move E with convection and showers.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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