[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 181719
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1218 PM EST Sat Feb 18 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends from 05N05W to 03N19W. The ITCZ was
analyzed from 03N19W to 03S39W. Scattered moderate convection is
from 00N-06N between 10W-20W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper-level low is centered over south-central CONUS extending
its trough across the northern portion of the basin. A diffluent
flow aloft to the east of the upper-level trough is supporting
scattered showers and thunderstorms mainly east of 86W. At the
surface, a 1011 mb surface low is located near 30N90W with a
trough extending from 29N93W to 30N88W. Scatterometer data depicts
gentle to moderate southerly winds across the basin. Expect
through the next 24 hours for the upper-level low to continue
moving east enhancing convection across the far east Gulf waters
and the Florida Peninsula.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A broad area of high pressure centered over the western Atlantic
extends across the basin. The tail end of a cold front prevails
over the Windward Passage enhancing convection across Hispaniola
and the adjacent waters. The pressure gradient generated between
the high pressure to the north and lower pressures over South
America is supporting gentle to moderate trades across most of the
area, except between 70W-80W where moderate to fresh winds
prevail. Expect for winds to weaken as pressure gradient relaxes
during the next 24 hours.

...HISPANIOLA...

The tail end of a cold front prevails over the Windward Passage
enhancing convection across Hispaniola and the adjacent waters.
This boundary is expected to dissipate within the next 24 hours.
However, low-level moisture will continue across the area
supporting isolated showers mostly during the afternoon hours
through the weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1021 mb surface high is centered across the west Atlantic near
26N71W. To the east, a cold front extends from 31N48W to 24N57W to
18N68W. Scattered moderate convection prevails along and east of
the front mainly north of 25N. A surface ridge extends across the
remainder of the basin anchored by a 1035 mb high centered near
39N25W. Expect for the cold front to continue moving east while
weakening during the next 24 hours. An upper-level low, currently
located over the south-central CONUS, will move east entering the
western Atlantic with convection.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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