[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 171703
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1203 PM EST Fri Feb 17 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1630 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A cold front extends into the discussion area near 32N56W SW to
the SE Bahamas and across central Cuba into the NW Caribbean Sea.
Near gale to gale force SW winds are occurring generally N of 30N
within 120 nm E of the front. See latest NWS High Seas Forecast
under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 08N13W to
07N16W to 02N20W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends
from 02N20W to the Equator near 25W. Scattered moderate
convection is from 01N-07N between 11W-17W...and S of 02N between
26W-47W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
Southwesterly flow aloft prevails over the Gulf basin this
afternoon on the eastern periphery of an approaching middle to
upper level low centered over northern Texas and Oklahoma with the
associated trough axis extending southward along 99W to over
central Mexico. Global models suggest the trough will induce weak
surface troughing or possible cyclogenesis across the northern
Gulf waters this evening through Sunday until the area moves into
the SW North Atlc region. This process is expected to happen
within moderate to fresh S-SE winds across the western Gulf as
surface ridging anchored currently by a 1020 mb high centered near
29N88W moves eastward during the next 24 hours. At a minimum...
even if suggested surface pressure falls do not materialize
during the weekend...increased mid-level lift and favorable
diffluent upper level dynamics are generating scattered showers
and tstms across the western and north-central Gulf waters
currently N of 24N between 88W-96W that will likely continue
through the overnight hours into Saturday across the northern Gulf
and coastal plain region.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
Upper level dry and stable west-southwesterly flow aloft prevails
over the Caribbean this afternoon providing for mainly tranquil
conditions at the surface. While skies remain mostly clear...the
main feature impacting the basin is a weakening cold front
extending across central Cuba and the NW Caribbean along 20N/21N
producing isolated showers and possible tstms remaining generally
N of 20N between the Yucatan peninsula and Cuba. Otherwise...gentle
to moderate trades are forecast to prevail and persist through
Saturday. A localized strong pressure gradient will establish
itself off the coast of Colombia by Friday night increasing winds
in this region into fresh to strong levels through early Monday
as strong high pressure is anchored to the N across the SW North
Atlc.

...HISPANIOLA...
Mostly clear skies persist this afternoon across the island as
upper level dry air and stable conditions aloft prevail. A cold
front currently analyzed to the N along 22N will continue sagging
southward and impact the island with increased cloudiness and
possible isolated showers late Friday night into Saturday. The
front is expected to continue weakening and become diffuse across
the region on Saturday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A broad middle to upper level low is centered over the Canadian
Maritimes providing troughing to much of the western North Atlc.
This troughing supports a cold front extending into the discussion
area near 32N58W SW to the SE Bahamas and across central Cuba into
the NW Caribbean Sea. Aside from the near gale to gale force
conditions described above in the Special Features section...
scattered showers and tstms are occurring N of 26N within 300 nm
E of the front. In addition...scattered showers are occurring
within 90 nm either side of the front W of 63W. To the west...a
secondary cold front extends from 32N62W to 30N69W. W of the
primary cold front...mainly moderate to fresh NW wind prevail to
70W as ridging builds in W of 70W anchored by a 1020 mb high
centered across the NE Gulf of Mexico. Farther east...the
remainder of the central and eastern Atlc is under the influence
of a surface ridge anchored by a 1032 mb high centered near
37N29W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
HUFFMAN

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