[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 141206
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
705 AM EST Tue Feb 14 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...

The 33-hour forecast, that starts at 14/0600 UTC, consists of a
cold front from 30N88W to 23N91W to 18N95W. Expect NW-to-N gale-
force winds, and sea heights ranging from 8 feet to 10 feet, to
the south of 20N to the west of 95W. Please read the latest NWS
High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC
for more details.

...GALE WARNING FOR THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The 36-hour forecast consists of a cold front that will be
approaching the SE U.S.A. coast. Expect S-to-SW gale-force winds
and sea heights ranging from 9 feet to 12 feet, to the north of
30N between 76W and 79W. Please read the latest NWS High Seas
Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more
details.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough reaches the coastal sections of Liberia near
06N10W. The ITCZ continues from 06N10W, to the equator along 18W,
to the equator along 22W, to 01N31W. Convective precipitation:
Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from 06N southward
from 50W eastward.

...DISCUSSION...

...FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN, ACROSS THE NW BAHAMAS AND
SOUTH FLORIDA, INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...INCLUDING THE REST OF
THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A deep-layer trough cuts the central Atlantic Ocean, toward the
Mona Passage. A cold front passes through 32N56W 27N70W, to a 1015
mb low pressure center that is along the Florida coast near
28N80W. A surface trough curves along the Florida coast, from the
1015 mb low pressure center toward Key West. A warm front is in
the Gulf of Mexico from 28N89W, beyond SW Louisiana and East
Texas, inland. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent
in water vapor imagery, from 20N northward from 50W westward in
the Atlantic Ocean, and everywhere in the Gulf of Mexico.
Convective precipitation: rainshowers are possible in the Atlantic
Ocean within 60 nm on either side of the line that passes through
32N53W 29N60W 26N70W 27N80W. Rainshowers are possible in the
Atlantic Ocean from 18N northward between 39W and 63W.

An upper level ridge is along 87W/88W in the Gulf of Mexico.
Anticyclonic wind flow spans the entire area.

...LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL
PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N
NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

LIFR: none.

IFR: KBBF.

MVFR: KMZG, KBQX, KVAF, KGBK, KVQT, KGHB, KEIR, KSPR, KGRY,
KATP, KIKT, and KVOA.


LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS: MVFR in the deep South. Rain, heavy at times, in the middle
Texas Gulf coastal areas and inland. IFR/MVFR from Victoria-Port
Lavaca-Palacios to the Houston metropolitan area and surrounding
smaller communities. Rain near Victoria. LOUISIANA: MVFR/IFR/LIFR
from Baton Rouge and the northern parts around Lake
Pontchartrain, southward, to all the coastal plains. MISSISSIPPI:
MVFR in McComb. ALABAMA: VFR. FLORIDA: MVFR/IFR/LIFR from Cross
City to the Tampa/St. Petersburg metropolitan area. MVFR in
Sarasota. LIFR in Punta Gorda. MVFR in Ft. Myers and Naples.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

Broad middle level to upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the
area that is from 80W eastward. The cyclonic wind flow is
accompanying the deep layer trough that passes through the central
Atlantic Ocean to the Mona Passage, and beyond.

Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor
imagery across the area.

Rainshowers are possible to the north of the line that extends
from 17N60W to 16N70W to 13N83W at the coast of Nicaragua.

24-HOUR rainfall amounts, for the period ending at 14/0000 UTC...
according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION
TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are: 0.01 in Guadeloupe.

...HISPANIOLA...

Middle level to upper level NW wind flow is present across the
area, with the central Atlantic Ocean-to-Mona Passage trough.
Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor
imagery across Hispaniola. Convective precipitation: rainshowers
are possible in the waters that surround Hispaniola, and also across
the island.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...for Port-au-Prince in Haiti: VFR.
for the DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Santo Domingo: MVFR. ceiling 1600
feet. La Romana: VFR. Punta Cana: MVFR. nearby rainshowers.
Santiago/Puerto Plata: VFR.

The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 MB shows that NW wind flow will
move across the area during the 24 hours of the 48-hour forecast
period. Day two will start with W wind flow, becoming SW with a
ridge and anticyclonic wind flow everywhere. The GFS MODEL
forecast for 500 MB shows that day one will consist of NW wind
flow, with a ridge that starts in the western part of the
Caribbean Sea, and that moves into the central Caribbean Sea by
the end of day one. Expect SW and W wind flow for day two, as the
ridge continues to move toward the east. The GFS MODEL forecast
for 700 mb shows that day one starts with NW wind flow, with a
ridge, followed by anticyclonic wind flow with an anticyclonic
circulation center that will move across the area. Day two will
consist of first SW wind flow, with the anticyclonic circulation
center to the east of Hispaniola, followed by anticyclonic wind
flow as the anticyclonic circulation center moves westward.

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level trough is about 450 nm to the east of Africa. A
surface trough is along 31N36N to 27N38W to 24N43W. A frontal
boundary is along and to the north of 31N/32N between 28W and
44W. Convective precipitation: widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong from 28N northward between 17W and 30W.

Upper level W-to-SW wind flow moves across the islands of the
eastern Caribbean Sea, into the Atlantic Ocean, to the south of
20N60W 22N40W, beyond 23N17W.

A surface ridge passes through Morocco, to the Canary Islands,
to 23N20W, to a 1017 mb high pressure center that is near 21N35W,
to a 1016 mb high pressure center that is near 21N48W.

A surface trough is along 22N54W 20N57W, to 19N60W. Convective
precipitation: rainshowers are possible from 18N to 25N between
48W and 63W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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