[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 131106
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
705 AM EST Mon Feb 13 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The surface pressure gradient between high pressure anchored
across the W Atlantic and low pressure across northern South
America is producing gale force E-NE winds along the coast of
Colombia. The gale is forecast to end in a few hours on 13/1200
UTC. See latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 07N11W to
03N19W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from
03N19W to 00N26W to 02N37W to the South American coast near
02S44W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is S of
the monsoon trough from 01N-06N between 04W-15W. Scattered
moderate convection is along the ITCZ from 02S-05N between 21W-
29W. Isolated moderate convection is from 02S-05N between 30W-
50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 0900 UTC, a cold front extends from the Florida Panhandle
near 31N84W to SE Louisiana near 29N90W. A quasi-stationary
front continues to E Texas near 29N94W to N Mexico near 28N102W.
Radar imagery shows the front is presently void of convection. A
1021 mb high is centered over the NE Gulf near 27N88W producing
10-15 anticyclonic winds over the E Gulf. Patchy fog mixed with
broken low clouds are along the Texas and Louisiana coasts N of
28N, producing possible IFR conditions. Fair weather is noted
elsewhere. In the upper levels, a large ridge is over the Gulf
with axis along 92W with very strong subsidence. Expect in 24
hours for the frontal system to dip further S over the N Gulf to
27N, with showers over Florida. Furthermore, expect a new cold
front along the Texas coast Tuesday evening with convection and
25 kt NW winds.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A gale is presently along the coast of N Colombia for a few more
hours. See above. 15-30 kt tradewinds are over the remainder of
the Caribbean Sea. The tail end of a quasi-stationary front is N
of Puerto Rico and over Hispaniola producing scattered showers.
Residual surface moisture in the form of scattered showers
continues from Hispaniola to Jamaica to the Gulf of Honduras
moving W with the tradewinds. Elsewhere, a good amount of broken
to overcast low clouds with embedded showers are advecting over
the Windward Islands and N Venezuela, from the Atlantic. In the
upper levels zonal flow is over Central America and the
Caribbean Sea with very strong subsidence. Expect over the next
24 hours for the front over the Atlantic to weaken, dip S, and
produce areas of scattered showers from the N Leeward Islands to
S of Jamaica. Also expect residual moisture to produce scattered
showers from Jamaica to the Gulf of Honduras. Meanwhile, expect
more scattered showers over the S Windward Islands and N
Venezuela, within the tradewind flow.

...HISPANIOLA...

Scattered showers are over Hispaniola due to the stationary
front. Expect these showers to move S over the next 24 hours.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1020 mb high is centered over the W Atlantic near 26N67W. A
1010 mb low is centered over the central Atlantic near 29N43W. A
cold front extends SW to 23N50W to 21N57W. A stationary front
continues to Hispaniola at 18N74W. Scattered showers are within
90 nm of the fronts. A cold front extends from 32N31W to 29N35W
to the Low at 29N43W. Isolated moderate convection is within 90
nm of this front. A small 1016 mb high is centered over the E
Atlantic near 23N34W. Of note in the upper levels, an upper
level trough is over the central Atlantic N of 20N between 30W-
50W supporting the frontal system. Expect in 24 hours for the
central Atlantic cold front to move E. Also expect a new cold
front to move into the W Atlantic from 32N56W to 26N70W
to central Florida with showers.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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