[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 121724
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1224 PM EST Sun Feb 12 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The pressure gradient between ridging anchored across the SW north
Atlantic and the Florida peninsula, and low pressure across
northern South America was producing gale force northeast to east
winds earlier this morning. The wind field off the coast of
Colombia is expected to pulse back to gale tonight and into
Monday morning. See latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 10N14W to
04N19W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from
04N19W to 00N37W to the South American coast near 01S46W.
Scattered moderate convection is from 02N to 06N E of 19W and
within 240 nm of either side of the ITCZ axis between 22W and
41W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

Areas of fog over the extreme northern portion of the Gulf are
slowly dissipating through the early afternoon. A 1025 mb area of
high pressure centered near 29N68W extends across the Florida
peninsula and the majority of the Gulf basin today. This is
supporting ongoing fair conditions aside from the aforementioned
fog, with gentle to moderate return flow across the entire basin.
The only other notable surface feature is a weak thermal trough
over the Bay of Campeche that is void of any convection. Over the
next 24 hours a cold front will enter the northern Gulf. Expect
scattered showers and winds becoming moderate to fresh and
northerly as the front passes.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The tail end of a stationary front is over Hispaniola to Jamaica
supporting scattered showers. A surface trough extends over the
Gulf of Honduras to central America supporting scattered to
numerous showers. Other patches of showers are embedded across
the southern Caribbean in the trade wind flow. Strong to near Gale
winds persist over the south central Caribbean between the high
pressure north of the basin and low pressure over Colombia.
Moderate to fresh east to northeast winds dominate the remainder
of the Caribbean today. Winds along the coast of Colombia will
pulse back to Gale once again tonight. Please see the special
features section for more details. The stationary front over
Hispaniola to Jamaica will dissipate. Overall, the trade winds
will decrease slightly over the Caribbean going into the day
Monday as the high to the north of the region weakens.

...HISPANIOLA...

Scattered to numerous showers are over Hispaniola due to a
stationary front over the island. Expect these conditions to
persist for the next 24 hours as the front slowly dissipates.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1025 mb high remains centered over the W Atlantic near 29N68W.
A frontal boundary passes through two weak areas of low pressure
over the central Atlantic from about 31N42W to the first low of
1016 mb near 29N47W, to the second low of 1016 mb near 25N51W,
and then extends as a cold front to 21N65W, where it then
transitions to a stationary front to the northern coast of
Hispaniola. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms continue
within about 180 nm of either side of the entire frontal system
over our area. A weak 1019 mb high is near 28N37W. Farther east, a
cold front enters the area of discussion near 31N11W to the
Canary Islands to 26N28W, then is stationary to 31N31W. Scattered
showers are within 90 nm of the front. Strong to near Gale winds
are from 25N to 30W, east of 20W. Over the next 24 hours, the high
over the western Atlantic will slowly weaken. The northernmost
low over the central Atlantic will progress east with a cold
front. The stationary front will begin to dissipate.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Latto
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net