[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 110542
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
105 AM EST Sat Feb 11 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The regional pressure gradient between ridging anchored across
the SE CONUS...including the Florida peninsula...and low
pressure across northern South America is producing gale force E-
NE winds tonight into Saturday morning. The wind field off the
coast of Colombia is expected to pulse during the late night and
early morning hours through Monday. See latest NWS High Seas
Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more
details.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 06N10W to
05N16W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from
05N16W to 05N20W to the Equator near 29W. Isolated moderate
convection is S of 08N between the Prime Meridian and 17W...and
S of 04N between 21W-29W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1029 mb high is centered off the coast of South Carolina near
32N76W producing 10-15 kt E to SE return flow over the Gulf of
Mexico. Patchy fog is over the northern Gulf with fair weather
elsewhere. In the upper levels, a large ridge is over the Gulf
with axis over Mexico at 100W. Upper level NW flow covers the
entire Gulf with very strong subsidence. Expect the next
significant front to be along the Texas coast Tue night with
convection and 25 kt winds.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The tail end of a cold front is over E Cuba producing scattered
showers. The tail end of a prefrontal trough is likewise over
Hispaniola producing more scattered showers. A good amount of
broken to overcast low clouds with embedded showers are
advecting over the Leeward Islands and Windward Islands from the
Atlantic. Elsewhere, scattered showers are over N Venezuela, W
Honduras, and Guatemala. In the upper levels, zonal flow is over
Central America and the Caribbean Sea with very strong
subsidence. Expect residual showers from the front to be over
Hispaniola, and Jamaica over the next 24 hours. Also expect N
Venezuela and N Colombia to have more showers embedded in the
tradewinds.

...HISPANIOLA...

Scattered showers are over N Haiti due to the prefrontal trough,
while more showers are over S Haiti due to low level moisture in
the tradewind flow. Expect these conditions to spread over all
of Hispaniola over the next 24 hours.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1029 mb high is centered off the coast of South Carolina near
32N76W. A cold front is over the central Atlantic from 31N54W to
26N60W to E Cuba at 21N76W. A prefrontal trough extends from
29N56W to 24N60W to N Haiti at 20N72W. Scattered moderate
convection is N of 24N within 90 nm E of the trough. Scattered
showers are elsewhere within 60 nm E of the front and trough. A
1030 mb high is over the E Atlantic near 34N37W. Of note in the
upper levels, a large upper level trough is over the central
Atlantic N of 20N between 50W-75W supporting the frontal system.
Expect the cold front to reach 32N44W in 24 hours with
convection.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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