[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 081802
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
102 PM EST Wed Feb 8 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...GALE WARNING FOR THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

The 18-hour forecast, that starts at 08/1200 UTC, consists of NE
to E gale-force winds, and sea heights ranging from 9 feet to 12
feet, from 11N to 13N between 74W and 76W. Please read the latest
NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02
KNHC for more details.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough passes through the coast of Liberia near
05N10W to 05N13W. The ITCZ continues from 05N13W to 05N22W,
02N23W, to 01N34W, and the equator along 40W. Convective
precipitation: Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong to the
south of the line 07N12W 08N26W 02N50W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

Middle level-to-upper level NW wind flow is moving across the open
waters of the Gulf of Mexico. The NW wind flow follows the middle
level to upper level trough of 24 hours ago, that helped to
support severe weather in some areas of the SE U.S.A. Gulf coast
states yesterday. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is
apparent in water vapor imagery. An east-to-west oriented frontal
boundary extends from Tennessee to Arkansas, Oklahoma, and beyond
northern sections of Texas. The southernmost point of a north-
to-south oriented surface trough reaches a point that is about
halfway between Nuevo Laredo and Piedras Negras along the
Texas/Mexico border.

A surface ridge passes through 23N75W in the Bahamas, across NW
Cuba, into the SE part of the Gulf of Mexico near 26N86W. A weak
surface pressure gradient covers the rest of the area.

...LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL
PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N
NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

LIFR: KXIH, KMIS, and KDLP.

IFR: KIKT and KVOA.

MVFR: KMZG, KBBF, KBQX, KHHV, KVAF, KEMK, KGUL, KHQI, KEHC, KGHB,
KEIR, KSPR, and KGRY.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

It is possible that severe weather may occur in parts of the
U.S.A. coastal plains states this afternoon. Please consult
watches and warnings from local NWS offices.

TEXAS: IFR/MVFR from Weslaco to Edinburg to McAllen. Earlier
morning LIFR/IFR conditions in parts of the Middle Texas Gulf
coast areas have improved to VFR. IFR/MVFR from Rockport to
Galveston, and MVFR in Sugar Land. LOUISIANA: MVFR/IFR from Baton
Rouge southward and southwestward. LIFR/IFR/MVFR in the SE corner,
to the south of Lake Pontchartrain. MISSISSIPPI: MVFR from
Natchez-to-Hattiesburg southward to Stennis. LIFR from Gulfport
eastward. ALABAMA: MVFR from Dothan to Fort Rucker. IFR/LIFR in
the southern sections/coastal sections that are between
Mississippi and Florida. FLORIDA: LIFR/IFR/MVFR from Perry
westward. Drizzle in Panama City. MVFR from Cross City to parts of
the Tampa/St. Petersburg metropolitan area.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

Middle level-to-upper level NW wind flow covers the area that is
from 16N northward from Jamaica westward. Upper level anticyclonic
wind flow covers the rest of the Caribbean Sea. Comparatively
drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor imagery across
the entire area.

24-HOUR rainfall amounts, for the period ending at 08/1200 UTC...
according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION
TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are: 0.12 in Trinidad, 0.06 in
Guadeloupe, 0.03 in St. Thomas, and 0.01 in Curacao.

...HISPANIOLA...

SW wind flow from 350 mb to 500 mb is moving across the area.
SE wind flow from 600 mb to 800 mb also is moving across the area.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...for Port-au-Prince in Haiti: VFR. for the
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Barahona: VFR. Santo Domingo/La Romana/Punta
Cana: VFR. Santiago/Puerto Plata: VFR.

The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 MB shows that gentle anticyclonic
wind flow and SW wind flow will be moving across the area during
the next 48 hours. The GFS MODEL forecast for 500 MB shows that
anticyclonic wind flow, with an Atlantic Ocean-to-Hispaniola
east-to-west oriented ridge will cover the area for the first 12
hours of day one. A trough will move to Hispaniola and become
stationary for the rest of the 48-hour forecast period. The GFS
MODEL forecast for 700 mb shows that SE-to-S wind flow will move
across the area for the first 12 hours. Expect anticyclonic wind
flow for the rest of the time, with an anticyclonic circulation
center remaining across Hispaniola.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

a middle level-to-upper level trough passes through 32N75W to
25N75W. This is the same trough that moved through the Gulf of
Mexico and the SE U.S.A. Gulf coast states. Some severe weather
was observed in this section of the U.S.A. Convective
precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from
23N to 32N between 67W and 73W. Isolated moderate elsewhere from
29N northward between 67W and 76W. High level clouds are to the NW
of the line that passes through 32N51W 26N60W 22N72W.

A middle level-to-upper level trough passes through 32N29W to
26N30W and 25N36W. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is
apparent in water vapor imagery from 24N northward between 30W and
51W. A surface trough remains along 34N34W 30N40W 28N45W 26N53W.
Convective precipitation: rainshowers are possible from 25N
northward between 30W and 60W.

A surface ridge extends from a 1032 mb high pressure center that
is near 35N47W, through 32N52W, to 29N57W, 24N65W, across the
Bahamas, and beyond NW Cuba. A surface ridge passes through 32N24W
to 30N29W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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