[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 081128
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
628 AM EST Wed Feb 8 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING...

Strong east to northeast winds in the south-central Caribbean near
the coast of Colombia will pulse gale-force by early Thursday,
with max seas building to 12-13 feet, from 11N to 13N between 74W
and 76W. These conditions will diminish by Thursday afternoon.
Please see the latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends from 10N14W to 07N19W. The ITCZ
continues from 07N19W to 00N37W. Scattered moderate convection is
within 50 nm on either side of the the ITCZ axis between 19W-48W.

...DISCUSSION...

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A squall line extends across the eastern Gulf and the Florida
Peninsula along 27N east of 84W. This boundary is moving quickly
to the southeast with scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms. Latest surface observations are reporting fog
across the northwest portion of the basin mainly north of 27N west
of 88W. The remainder of the basin is under the influence of a
surface ridge anchored by a 1030 mb high centered over the central
Atlantic near 34N50W. A thermal trough extends across the Bay of
Campeche from 23N89W to 20N91W. No significant convection is
related to this feature. The squall line will continue moving
southeast while weakening and entering the west Atlantic. A fast
moving cold front is expected to move into the northern Gulf by
Thursday morning and sweep southeast of the basin on Thursday
night. High pressure will build behind the front on Friday.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Strong trade winds prevail across the southern Caribbean south of
13N and will strengthen to gale-force by early Thursday as the
Atlantic ridge shifts northeastward, tightening the gradient in
the central Atlantic. Please refer to the Special Features
section for more details about the gale winds. Moderate to fresh
trades prevail elsewhere. These winds are transporting low-level
moisture that is enhancing isolated showers across the eastern
portion of the basin mainly east of 70W. A fast moving cold front
will move into the NW Caribbean by Thursday night, then weaken
through Friday night. This front will enhance winds/seas across
the area.

...HISPANIOLA...

Fair weather prevails across the island at this time. These
conditions will continue through the next 24 hours.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Scattered moderate convection is moving across the west Atlantic
mainly north of 28N west of 74W. To the east, a surface high
centered near 34N50W extends a ridge westward across central
Florida and the Gulf of Mexico. This high covers the Atlantic
basin with fair weather. A weakening cold front was analyzed from
26N52W to 31N38W with isolated showers. Expect for the convection
over the west Atlantic to continue moving east. The front will
dissipate today. A stronger cold front will move rapidly across
the western Atlantic on Thursday enhancing winds/seas/convection.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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