[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 022320
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
705 PM EST Thu Feb 02 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 08N13W to
04N16W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone extends from 04N16W
to the Equator near 39W to the coast of South America near
02S45W. Widely scattered moderate convection is from 00N-04N
between 20W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 2100 UTC a 1023 mb high is centered over N Florida near
29N84W with 5-10 anticyclonic winds and fair weather. Elsewhere,
a 1019 mb low is centered over Louisiana near 31N93W. A cold
front extends SW from the low to near Corpus Christie Texas at
28N96W. Radar imagery shows this front has scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms within 90 nm of front. Further S, a
surface trough is over the Bay of Campeche from 22N95W to
18N94W. Scattered showers are from 20N-22N between 87W-95W. In
the upper levels, a short wave trough is over the Gulf of Mexico
with axis along 93W supporting the cold front. Expect in 24
hours for the front to extend from Tallahassee Florida to
Brownsville Texas with showers. Also expect more showers over
the Bay of Campeche.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

15-25 kt tradewinds are over the Caribbean with strongest winds
along the coast of Colombia. Scattered showers are over the
Yucatan Peninsula, Guatemala, and Honduras. Similar showers are
over Costa Rica. Scattered showers are over Jamaica and the
central Caribbean from 14N-19N between 76W-81W. More showers are
over Puerto Rico and the E Caribbean from 10N-19N between 65W-
69W. In the upper levels, an upper level ridge is over the
Caribbean with axis along 80W. Very strong subsidence is over
the entire Caribbean. Expect over the next 24 hours for all
showers to move W with the tradewind flow.

...HISPANIOLA...

Presently scattered showers are over Hispaniola due to moisture
in the tradewind flow. Expect more showers over the next 24
hours.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough is over the W Atlantic from 31N64W to 26N74W.
Scattered showers are within 120 nm of the trough. More
scattered showers are over the N Bahamas. Another surface trough
extends from 27N58W to 23N61W. Scattered showers are within 60
nm of this trough. A 1029 mb high is over the E Atlantic near
28N34W. Of note in the upper levels, a small upper level low is
centered over the Tropical Atlantic near 17N44W with scattered
showers E of the center. Expect in 24 hours for the former
surface trough to extend from 31N60W to 28N66W with showers.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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