[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 011140
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
640 AM EST Wed Feb 1 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE-FORCE WINDS IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

NE gale-force winds, and sea heights ranging from 9 feet to 13
feet, are present from 10N to 12N between 74W and 76W. These
conditions are in the coastal waters of Colombia. Please read
the latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough passes through Guinea near 08N13W to 04N18W.
The ITCZ continues from 04N18W to the equator along 33W, to
01S37W. Convective precipitation: scattered to numerous strong
from 01N to 06N between 03W and 06W, and from the equator to 01S
between 47W and 50W. widely scattered moderate to isolated strong
from 04N southward between 23W and 45W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

Upper level SW wind flow covers the Gulf of Mexico from 90W
westward. The wind flow becomes westerly from 90W eastward to
Florida. The N-to-S oriented trough, that was across Florida six
hours ago, now is in the Atlantic Ocean along 75W.

A surface ridge passes through the Florida along 28N/29N, into the
central Gulf of Mexico, beyond the coast of Mexico near 23N98W.

...LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL
PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N
NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

LIFR: none.

IFR: none.

MVFR: KBQX.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS: LIFR from Hebbronville to Falfurrias and Alice, in Victoria
and Port Lavaca. MVFR in Bay City and Jasper. LIFR in Conroe,
Sugar Land, and Pearland. LOUISIANA: LIFR in Lake Charles.
MISSISSIPPI: LIFR in Pascagoula. ALABAMA: LIFR from Evergreen to
Fort Rucker to Dothan. FLORIDA: MVFR in parts of the Pensacola
metropolitan area. LIFR and light rain in Milton. IFR in
Crestview and Valparaiso. LIFR in Marianna and in the NW part of
the Panama City metropolitan area. LIFR from Tallahassee to Perry
to Cross City to Brooksville, at the MacDill AFB, and in parts of
the St.Petersburg metropolitan area. MVFR in Sarasota.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

Upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the area from 17N
southward.

SE-to-S wind flow from 350 mb to 500 mb covers the area from 66W
eastward. Easterly wind flow from 600 mb to 800 mb is moving
through the same area, from 66W eastward.

Middle level to upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the waters
that are to the south of Hispaniola, with a 16N68W cyclonic
circulation center.

Comparatively drier air, in subsidence, is apparent in water
vapor imagery, across the entire Caribbean Sea.

24-HOUR rainfall amounts in inches, for the period ending at
01/0000 UTC, according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES, MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC, are: 0.21 in
Guadeloupe, and 0.19 in Curacao.

...HISPANIOLA...

Northerly wind flow from 350 mb to 500 mb eventually becomes
easterly, across Hispaniola. SE wind flow, from 600 mb to 800 mb,
also is moving across Hispaniola. An upper level cyclonic
circulation center is near 16N68W, about 125 nm to the SSE of the
SE corner of the Dominican Republic. Comparatively drier air in
subsidence is apparent in water vapor imagery, across the entire
area.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...for the DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Barahona: VFR.
Santo Domingo: VFR, after several observations of MVFR, and a
ceiling at 1600 feet. La Romana: VFR. Punta Cana: VFR, after some
observations of light rain during the last 9 hours. Santiago:
VFR. Puerto Plata: MVFR, ceiling 1600 feet.

The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 MB shows that W-to-NW wind flow
will move across Hispaniola during the next 48 hours, with SW wind
flow at the end of the time. The GFS MODEL forecast for 500 MB
shows that anticyclonic wind flow from a ridge and an anticyclonic
circulation center will span the area during the next 48 hours.
The GFS MODEL forecast for 700 mb shows that cyclonic wind flow
with an inverted trough will alternate with anticyclonic wind flow
and an Atlantic Ocean-to-Hispaniola ridge.

..THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Upper level SW wind flow is moving on top of a stationary front
that passes through 31N49W to 26N58W. A surface trough continues
from 26N58W to 23N67W and 20N73W at the coast of Haiti.
Rainshowers are possible to the NW of the line that passes through
32N40W 26N55W 20N67W.

A surface ridge passes through 32N55W to 29N75W, beyond Florida
along 28N/29N.

An upper level inverted trough is spreading cyclonic wind flow
from 10N to 20N between 30W and 43W. Broken to overcast
multilayered clouds and possible rainshowers cover the Atlantic
Ocean in the same area.

Upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from
10N northward between 20W and 64W. An upper level trough is
digging through Mauritania. A surface ridge passes through the
Madeira Archipelago, to a 1028 mb high pressure center that is
near 29N36W, to 24N50W and 19N54W.


For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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