[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 311701
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1200 PM EST Sun Dec 31 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1615 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
An middle to upper level trough is noted on water vapor imagery
over NW Mexico and the Gulf of California that is expected to
merge with northern stream energy currently moving southward
central Great Plains and drive a cold front southward across the
Gulf basin Sunday night through Monday. While fresh to strong
northerly winds will follow the cold front...near gale to gale
force N-NW winds are expected generally S of 24N W of 94W Monday
through early Tuesday. See the latest NWS High Seas Forecast under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 06N10W to
05N16W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from
05N16W to 04N25W to the Equator near 51W. Scattered moderate
convection is from 02N-06N between 36W-50W...and from 03N-10N
between 50W-59W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A cold front extends across the northern Florida peninsula from
near Cape Canaveral to 29N84W then becomes stationary into a 1017
mb low centered along the Louisiana coast near 29N91W. A cold
front then extends W-SW from the low center to the Texas coast
near Corpus Christi. The low is expected to slowly drift eastward
through Sunday night and remain embedded within the Special
Features cold front. Through Sunday night...the front will become
invigorated by the middle to upper level dynamics mentioned
above as middle to upper level energy over the central Great
Plains phases with a middle to upper level trough over NW Mexico.
Fresh to strong northerly winds are expected to follow in wake of
the front and cover much of the basin by Monday night as the
front moves SE of the basin by Tuesday. Currently...widely
scattered showers and isolated tstms are occurring N of 25N
between 85W-90W with isolated showers possible elsewhere within 90
nm either side of the cold front W of 90W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
South-southwesterly flow aloft prevails over the Caribbean basin
this afternoon on the western periphery of an upper level ridge
axis extends from over the southern Windward Islands to over
Nicaragua and Honduras. Otherwise...conditions at the surface
remain relatively tranquil with moderate to occasional fresh
trades expected to persist through Wednesday. By Monday night
however...a cold front sweeping across the Gulf of Mexico will
begin to impact the NW Caribbean with moderate to fresh N-NE
winds. The front will gradually weaken through Wednesday and a
reinforcing front will increase northerly winds again Wednesday
night into Thursday generally W of 75W.

...HISPANIOLA...
Mostly dry and stable conditions aloft are noted on water vapor
imagery...with patches of shallow moisture and possible isolated
showers embedded within moderate trade wind flow. Little change is
expected the next couple of days as low level moisture continues
to advect westward across the region.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
Broad longwave middle to upper level troughing is noted on water
vapor imagery over the western North Atlc supporting a pair of
cold fronts that enter into the SW North Atlc discussion area this
afternoon. The primary cold front extends from a 997 mb low
centered SE of Nova Scotia near 42N55W SW to 32N70W to the Florida
peninsula near Cape Canaveral. A weak 1016 mb low is centered in
the vicinity of the front near 30N74W with a surface trough
extending S-SW across the central Bahamas to 24N80W. Isolated
showers are possible within 90 nm either side of the cold front
between 65W-76W. To the east...the other cold front extends from
32N57W SW to 26N70W. Low-level moisture convergence is maximized
generally in the vicinity of 29N55W E of the front and along with
ample mid-level lifting dynamics...scattered showers and isolated
tstms are occurring N of 27N between 45W-60W. The remainder of the
eastern Atlc is under the influence of a surface ridge anchored
by a 1034 mb high centered SE of the Azores near 37N24W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
HUFFMAN
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