[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 310537
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1237 AM EST Sun Dec 31 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

As of 31/0300 UTC, a strong cold front has just entered the
northern Gulf of Mexico. The front will extend from the Tampa Bay
area of Florida to Tampico, Mexico by Sunday night. Behind the
front, frequent gusts to gale force are expected within 60 nm of
the coast between Choctawhatchee Bay, Florida and High Island
Texas beginning at 0000 UTC Monday. By Monday afternoon, gale
force winds will cover the area from 21N to 24N west of 96W with N
to NE winds 20 to 30 knots elsewhere north of the front. Please
refer to the latest High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers
HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 05N09W to
06N17W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from
06N17W to 04N40W to the South American coast near 06N53W.
Scattered moderate convection is from 03N-05N between 33W-38W.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 04N-12N
between 54W-60W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 31/0300 UTC, a strong cold front extends from the Florida
Panhandle near 31N85W to the Texas coast near 29N96W. Radar
imagery shows scattered showers inland over Louisiana. A surface
trough is located over the W Gulf of Mexico from 29N92W to 23N94W.
Scattered showers are within 15 nm of the trough. In the upper
levels, zonal flow is noted with upper level moisture over the
central Gulf. Expect the front to push S over the Gulf and produce
gale force winds N of front. See above. Seas of 8 to 13 ft will
build across the central and western Gulf associated with the
strong winds.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A 1010 mb low centered over central Panama near 09N80W supports
scattered moderate convection S of 13N and W of 80W. Scattered
showers are over the Leeward and Windward Islands. Mainly
moderate trades cover the Caribbean N of 15N with moderate to
fresh trades over the area S of 15N. Broad ridging aloft covers
the entire basin with the strongest flow over the NW part. A cold
front will reach the NW Caribbean on Tuesday.

...HISPANIOLA...

Mostly dry and stable conditions are aloft, however, patches of
shallow moisture embedded in the trade wind flow continue to
support scattered showers over the island. Similar weather is
forecast to persist through Monday as low level moisture continue
to advect from the east.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough is over the W Atlantic from 31N76W to the N
Bahamas near 26N76W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the
trough. A 1013 mb low is over the W Atlantic near 32N60W. A cold
front extends SW from the low to 27N68W. Scattered moderate
convection is from 28N-32N between 53W-59W. A 1030 mb high is over
the E Atlantic near 32N24W. Expect a strong cold front to enter
the Atlantic off the coast of Florida Sunday evening with showers.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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