[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 301748
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1248 PM EST Sat Dec 30 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1615 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A strong cold front will enter the northern Gulf of Mexico early on
Sunday night and will reach from the Tampa Bay area of Florida to
Tampico, Mexico by Monday morning. Behind the front, frequent
gusts to gale force are expected within 60 nm of the coast between
Choctawhatchee Bay, Florida and High Island Texas beginning at
0000 UTC Monday, and persisting into Monday afternoon. Please
refer to the latest high seas forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers
HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 05N09W to
05N14W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from
05N14W to 03N30W to the South American coast near 02N51W.
No significant convection is noted.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front extends from Venice, Florida near 27N82W to
the central Gulf of Mexico near 26N90W to a 1019 mb low pressure
center near 28N96W. A surface trough extends from the low
southward to the Bay of Campeche near 19N95W. Scattered showers
are within 90 nm of the front, low, and trough. Another batch of
showers and isolated thunderstorms extends S of the stationary
front to 22N between 85W and 90W. Moderate to fresh northerly
winds are N of the stationary front. Gentle to moderate winds are
W of the trough and S of the stationary front. The low will move
inland tonight as the stationary front weakens. A strong cold
front will enter the northern Gulf Sunday evening and support
frequent northerly wind gusts to gale force within 60 nm of the
coast Sunday night through at least early Monday afternoon.
Please refer to the special features section for more details.
Strong to near gale force winds will spread south behind the
front Monday, with sustained gale force winds possible over a
portion of the southwest Gulf Monday afternoon into Tuesday. Seas
of 8 to 13 ft will build across the central and western Gulf
associated with the strong winds.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A 1010 mb low centered over Panama near 09N80W supports scattered
moderate convection S of 13N and W of 79W. Scattered showers in
the trade wind flow cover the SE Caribbean S of 13N and E of
Aruba. Mainly moderate trades cover the Caribbean N of 15N.
Moderate to fresh trades cover the Caribbean S of 15N. Over the
next 24 hours winds will pulse to strong tonight near the Coast
of NW Colombia. A cold front will reach the NW Caribbean on
Tuesday.

...HISPANIOLA...

Dry conditions cover the Dominican Republic and northern Haiti,
while scattered showers cover the southwest tip of Haiti. Little
change is expected over the next 24 hours.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1014 mb low is centered over the W Atlantic near 31N66W. A cold
front extends SE from the low to 28N73W. A cold front is over the
central Atlantic from 31N42W to 29N48W, where it transitions to a
stationary front to 30N57W and then transitions to a warm front
that extends to the 1014 mb low to the west. Scattered moderate
convection is N of 27N between 54W and 66W. Fresh southerly winds
are within 120 nm S of the warm front and stationary front. Fresh
winds are N of the fronts between 57W and 70W. To the south, fresh
to strong easterly trades S of 13N and W of 54W are helping to
support scattered moderate and isolated strong convection over
the area, including The Grenadines islands. A weak surface trough
void of convection has an axis that extends from 21N50W to 13N51W.
A 1026 mb high centered near 29N35W dominates the remainder of the
central and eastern Atlantic discussion waters. Over the next 24
hours the low over the western Gulf will move north of the
discussion waters. A strong cold front will reach the waters off
north Florida on Monday.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Latto
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