[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 300005
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
705 PM EST Fri Dec 29 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Liberia
near 05N09W to 06N16W and 05N21W. The ITCZ continues from 05N21W
to 04N25W 04N30W 03N38W 05N49W, and 05N52W at the coast of French
Guiana. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong from 04N to 08N between 41W and 51W, and from 10N southward
between 55W and 60W. isolated moderate elsewhere from 02N to 05N
between southern sections of Liberia and 30W, and elsewhere from
11N southward between 30W and 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front extends from 27N81W in Florida just to the
north of Lake Okeechobee, into the central Gulf of Mexico, to a
1022 mb low pressure center that is near 26N95W, to 20N97W along
the coast of Mexico, and curving NW into Mexico, beyond the Texas
Big Bend. A surface trough, also, is along 26N85W 24N88W 23N91W.
Broken to overcast low level clouds, and a mixture of fog at some
oil platform sites, mist, and possible rainshowers, are to the
north of the line from the Florida Keys, to 22N90W, to 20N96W in
the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

Upper level W-to-SW wind flow is moving across Trinidad.
Scatterometer winds for the surface are from the northeast. The
GFS model forecast for the next 48 hours, shows that an upper
level ridge will be across the area, on top of a 500 mb-to-700 mb
inverted trough. scattered to broken low level clouds and rain
are being observed in Trinidad and Tobago, and in the surrounding
areas from 15N southward from 71W eastward. The 24-hour rainfall
total in inches, for Trinidad, for the period that ended at
29/1200 UTC, according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...is 3.09 inches.

Scatterometer winds are from the NE from 17N southward from 77W
eastward to Central America. A surface trough extends from the
central coast of Panama to SE Nicaragua. Precipitation: isolated
to widely scattered moderate rainshowers cover the area from 16N
southward from 79W westward, reaching the coastal plains/interior
sections, mostly in Nicaragua at the present time.

A surface trough is in the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea.
Precipitation: isolated moderate rainshowers are from 21N
southward from 82W westward.

Broken low level clouds and possible rainshowers also are
from 13N to 17N between 73W and 78W.

24-hour rainfall totals in inches, for the period that ended at
29/1200 UTC, according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are: 3.09 in
Trinidad, 0.19 in San Juan in Puerto Rico, 0.16 in St. Thomas in
the Virgin Islands, and 0.02 in Guadeloupe.

...HISPANIOLA...

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...Scattered to broken low level clouds and
possible rainshowers are from 16N to 20N between 66W and 69W,
between Puerto Rico and the Mona Passage, and from 17N to 24N
between 69W and 75W, from Hispaniola into the SE Bahamas. Rain is
being reported in Santo Domingo in the Dominican Republic. Earlier
reports showed rain in the Dominican Republic: in Punta Cana and
in Santiago.

The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 mb shows that SW-to-W wind flow
will move across the island during the next 2 days. A ridge will
extend from the SE corner of the Caribbean Sea to eastern Honduras.
The GFS MODEL forecast for 500 mb shows that day one will start
with a ridge from the SE corner of the Caribbean Sea to
Hispaniola. The ridge will shift eastward, pushing SW wind flow
across Hispaniola for the next 36 hours or so. Day two will end
with a mixture of W-to-NW wind flow across the area. The GFS
MODEL forecast for 700 mb shows that day one will consist of an
anticyclonic circulation center being 130 nm to 160 nm to the
north of Hispaniola. NE wind flow will move across the area during
the first half of the day. An inverted trough will move into the
area during the second half of day one. The inverted trough will
remain across Hispaniola during all of day two, bringing with it
cyclonic wind flow.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front passes through 32N48W to 27N59W. The front becomes
stationary, and it continues from 27N59W to 27N64W and 28N67W.
The front becomes warm from 28N67W to 31N74W, and to a 1018 mb low
pressure center that is near 30N77W. A cold front continues from
the 1018 mb low pressure center, to the Florida coast near 25N80W.
A surface trough is along 27N53W 23N57W 19N60W. Precipitation:
isolated moderate rainshowers to the NW of 32N40W 15N60W.

An upper level trough extends from 31N26W to 22N35W, to 15N44W. A
surface trough is along 27N32W 24N35W 21N36W. Rainshowers are
possible from 20N to 27N between 27W and 36W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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