[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 290549
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1248 AM EST Fri Dec 29 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0445 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 07N12W to
06N17W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from
06N17W to 01N38W to 01N44W. Scattered moderate convection is from
02N-06N between 28W-41W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
Zonal westerly flow aloft prevails over the Gulf basin this
evening while a stationary front extends from across the central
Florida peninsula to 27N90W to 26N95W then southward to 20N96W and
inland across interior portions of east-central and NE Mexico. Low
stratus and possible isolated showers are generally noted on
satellite imagery north and west of the frontal boundary while
isolated showers continue in the vicinity of a surface trough
extending from 22N89W to 27N89W. High pressure lies to the north
across much of the SE CONUS and eastern Texas generating moderate
to occasional fresh E-NE winds across much of the basin. The
frontal troughing across the western Gulf waters is expected to
remain in place through Saturday night and surface ridging
influences the eastern Gulf and Florida peninsula through Sunday
night. Thereafter...the next strong cold front is expected to
emerge off the Texas and Louisiana coasts Sunday late afternoon
into the evening.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
Middle to upper level ridging persists over the Caribbean basin
this evening with water vapor imagery indicating mostly dry and
stable conditions aloft. Moderate to fresh trades prevail and are
expected to persist through Tuesday. Low-level moisture
convergence is maximized across the western waters generating
isolated showers and tstms E-NE of Nicaragua and across the Gulf
of Honduras region. This convection is expected to continue moving
westward across interior portions of Central America. Otherwise...
little change is expected during the next couple of days.

...HISPANIOLA...
A few isolated showers are moving across the region this evening
however mostly fair conditions are expected into Friday for
Hispaniola. Mostly dry and stable W-NW flow will persist on the
eastern periphery of a upper level ridge anchored over the western
Caribbean.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A cold front enters the discussion area near 32N60W extending SW
to 29N75W becoming stationary to the Florida peninsula near
28N80W. Mainly low stratus with embedded isolated showers are
noted on satellite imagery along and N of the front. To the S...a
pre-frontal surface trough is analyzed from the central Bahamas
near 24N76W to 29N66W and is providing focus for isolated showers
within 75 nm either side of the boundary. Otherwise...the
remainder of central and eastern Atlc is under the influence of a
surface ridge anchored by a 1031 mb high centered S-SE of the
Azores near 33N23W. One exception within the southwestern
periphery of the surface ridge is a middle to upper level low
noted on water vapor imagery near 25N37W generating scattered
showers and possible isolated tstms from 19N-27N between 34W-
38W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
HUFFMAN
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