[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 262325
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
625 PM EST Tue Dec 26 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean near 04N06W to 03N06W.
The Intertropical Convergence Zone continues from 03N06W to 00N50W.
Scattered moderate convection is from 02N-10N between 24W-46W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak low pressure continues over the northwest Gulf centered
near 29N96W. A warm front extends eastward from the low to near
28N91W. Isolated showers are noted in the vicinity of the
low/front. A surface trough extends from the low to the northeast
Mexico coast near 23N98W. Scatterometer data depicts moderate to
fresh easterly winds just north of the warm front, and mainly
gentle to moderate southeast winds across the remainder of the
western half of the Gulf. The remainder of the basin is under the
influence of a surface ridge anchored by a 1034 mb high currently
centered over North Carolina. The ridge is providing gentle to
moderate easterly winds across the eastern half of the Gulf. The
area of weak low pressure across the northwest Gulf will drift
eastward over the next couple of days. The pressure gradient
between the low and high pressure north of area will bring a
slightly stronger northeast winds on Tuesday night into Wednesday
across the northwest Gulf eventually becoming more diffuse by
Thursday as the frontal wave weakens across the north-central and
northeast Gulf waters. The next strong cold front is expected to
emerge off the Texas and Louisiana coasts Sunday evening followed
by gale-force winds.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The most recent scatterometer data show moderate to fresh winds
across the south-central Caribbean near the coast of Colombia,
while moderate winds prevail across the remainder of the
Caribbean. Patches of low-level moisture embedded in the trade
wind flow are producing isolated to scattered passing showers
across the Greater and Lesser Antilles from time to time. Little
change in this weather pattern is expected during the next couple
of days. Strong trades will pulse over the Central and southwest
Caribbean through Thursday, with near gale-force nocturnal winds
near the coast of Colombia tonight. Fresh to locally strong
easterly winds are expected through the Windward Passage this
evening. Large east swell, in the form of 7 to 9 ft seas, will
reach the east Atlantic passages this evening, and continue
through Thursday evening.

...HISPANIOLA...

Low-topped trade wind showers will continue to move across the
island from time to time. Mostly dry and stable conditions are
expected to persist during the next couple of days under the
influence of a mid to upper-level ridge and associated strong
subsidence.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A frontal boundary extends across the west Atlantic, analyzed as a
cold front from 31N64W to 29N71W, then as a stationary front from
that point to 27N76W. A surface trough extends from 27N76W to
24N77W. Isolated showers are noted along these boundaries. The
cold front is expected to drift eastward through Wednesday, and
begin to stall and weaken on Thursday. The remainder of central
and eastern Atlantic is under the influence of a surface ridge
anchored by a stationary 1032 mb high centered southwest of the
Azores near 35N29W. This system will undergo occasional intensity
fluctuations resulting in a rather tight pressure gradient across
the waters north of the ITCZ/monsoon trough between the coast of
Africa and the Lesser Antilles through at least mid-week. Recent
scatterometer data indicates moderate to fresh winds around the
southern periphery of the ridge east of the Lesser Antilles. Seas
are in the 8-11 ft range within this area of winds based on several
altimeter passes.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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