[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 251154
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
653 AM EST Mon Dec 25 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1115 UTC.

...Gale Warning in the Caribbean Sea...

Please read the latest NHC High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. The gale-force
wind conditions, that have been affecting parts of the coastal
waters of Colombia, from 10N to 13N between 74W and 77W, are
forecast to weaken around sunrise today. Expect less than gale-
force wind conditions in that area during the next few days.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough passes through the Prime Meridian along 05N,
to 05N10W. The ITCZ continues from 05N10W to 05N22W and 02N32W.
Precipitation: scattered moderate to strong from 03N to 05N
between 31W and 43W. widely scattered moderate to isolated strong
within 120 nm to the N of the ITCZ between 19W and 31W, and from
03N southward between 46W and 51W. Rainshowers are possible
elsewhere from 10N southward from 60W eastward.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level trough cuts through the Florida Panhandle, into the
NE corner of the Gulf of Mexico, into the W central Gulf of Mexico.
The trough is supporting a cold front, that passes through the
Florida Panhandle, into the N central Gulf of Mexico, to the Deep
South of Texas, across Mexico, and northwestward beyond the Texas
Big Bend. This front is a second front, which is to the N of a
cold front that now passes through Florida at 30N along 81W, into
the central Gulf of Mexico. The front becomes stationary, as it
curves from the central Gulf of Mexico to 24N95W, and to the
Isthmus of Tehuantepec. The second front is forecast to merge
with the cold front/stationary front later during the day today.
Broken low level clouds and possible rainshowers cover the Gulf
of Mexico from 23N northward, and from 23N southward from 93W
westward.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the area that is from 70W
eastward, with the 24N47W-19N57W-15N67W Atlantic Ocean-to-
eastern Caribbean Sea trough. The trough has remained in the area
during the last day or two.

A second area of upper level cyclonic wind flow covers parts of the
western Caribbean Sea and Central America from 10N to 18N between
80W and 90W, from Panama to Belize/the Yucatan Peninsula. Broken
low level clouds and isolated moderate rainshowers are in the same
area.

...HISPANIOLA...

Upper level NE wind flow, and comparatively drier air in
subsidence in water vapor imagery, cover Hispaniola.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...scattered to broken low level clouds and
possible rainshowers are moving across north central Hispaniola,
such as near Santiago, in the Dominican Republic.
Fair skies elsewhere.

The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 mb shows that W-to-NW wind flow
will move across the island during the next 2 days. A ridge will
extend from Colombia northwestward, into the Caribbean Sea.
The GFS MODEL forecast for 500 mb shows that NE wind flow will
move across the area during the next 2 days. A ridge will extend
from the Atlantic Ocean to NW Cuba. The GFS MODEL forecast for
700 mb shows that NE wind flow will move across the area during
the next 2 days, with an Atlantic Ocean ridge.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level trough extends from a 31N34W cyclonic circulation
center, to 24N35W, to 24N47W, to an 19N57W cyclonic circulation
center, to 15N67W in the eastern Caribbean Sea. Isolated moderate
rainshowers are from 19N to 23N between 55W and 61W, and from 10N
to 20N between 47W and 60W.

A surface ridge passes through 32N55W to 30N63W, toward the NW
Bahamas. Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean
from 15N northward between Africa and 60W, and from 20N northward
from the NW Bahamas eastward. Rainshowers are possible from 20N
northward from 63W westward. A cold front passes through 32N78W to
28N81W in Florida.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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